| Game | Bet | Book | Fair | Expected Win | EV | Kelly% | Stake (10k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers | NY Rangers o27.5 | 1.94 | 1.75 | 57.10% | +10.77% | +11.46% | 287 |
| Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers | o52.5 | 2.07 | 1.84 | 54.28% | +12.37% | +11.56% | 289 |
| Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres | Buffalo Sabres shots | 1.85 | 1.63 | 61.36% | +13.52% | +15.91% | 398 |
| Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres | Buffalo o29.5 | 2.13 | 1.80 | 55.58% | +18.39% | +16.27% | 407 |
| Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres | o56.5 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 59.83% | +10.68% | +12.57% | 314 |
| Layer | Chicago Blackhawks | New York Rangers | Chicago Blackhawks note | New York Rangers note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base model | 26.46 | 27.45 | ||
| DFO lineup + goalie | -0.12 | +0.16 | goalie input (-0.12) with Soderblom. | goalie input (+0.16) with Garand. |
| Schedule baseline | -0.55 | +0.15 | B2B, -1 rest | +1 rest |
| Schedule trigger | -1.00 | +0.58 | B2B away-away 121-500 km trip after a loss | 1 rest day home 501-1000 km trip after a loss |
| Lineup / star shock | +0.00 | +0.00 | Projected lineup looks close to the usual core. | Projected lineup looks close to the usual core. |
| Defense depletion | +0.00 | +0.00 | Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired. | Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired. |
| Roster event memory | +0.00 | +0.01 | No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team. | No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team. |
| Game | Bet | Book | Fair | Expected Win | EV | Kelly% | Stake (10k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers | NY Rangers o27.5 | 1.94 | 1.75 | 57.10% | +10.77% | +11.46% | 287 |
| Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers | o52.5 | 2.07 | 1.84 | 54.28% | +12.37% | +11.56% | 289 |
| Layer | Detroit Red Wings | Buffalo Sabres | Detroit Red Wings note | Buffalo Sabres note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base model | 27.75 | 29.38 | ||
| DFO lineup + goalie | +0.01 | +0.05 | goalie input (+0.01) with John Gibson. | goalie input (+0.05) with Alex Lyon. |
| Schedule baseline | +0.15 | -0.11 | +1 rest | -1 rest |
| Schedule trigger | +0.00 | +0.79 | No high-confidence schedule trigger fired. | 1 rest day home same-city trip after a loss |
| Lineup / star shock | +0.00 | +0.00 | Projected lineup looks close to the usual core. | Projected lineup looks close to the usual core. |
| Defense depletion | +0.00 | +0.00 | Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired. | Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired. |
| Roster event memory | +0.00 | +0.00 | No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team. | No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team. |
| Game | Bet | Book | Fair | Expected Win | EV | Kelly% | Stake (10k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres | Buffalo Sabres shots | 1.85 | 1.63 | 61.36% | +13.52% | +15.91% | 398 |
| Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres | Buffalo o29.5 | 2.13 | 1.80 | 55.58% | +18.39% | +16.27% | 407 |
| Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres | o56.5 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 59.83% | +10.68% | +12.57% | 314 |