OLDMODEL2.0 Preliminary Daily Report

16:00 CET baseline report for today's NHL slate

Games

Confirmed Goalies

Expected 0 | Unconfirmed 2

Mean Player Move

0.46

Goalie 0.07 | residual 0.13

Chance Shot Feed

47 shot prices | 2026-06-06T19:59:47.146127+02:00

Player board | Player shortlist

Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights

2026-06-06 | 2026-06-07T00:00:00Z UTC | as of 2026-06-04

Base numbers

30.0 - 21.9

Base total 51.9 SOG

Base edge -8.07 home

Final live numbers

30.1 - 22.7

Live total 52.7 SOG

Live edge -7.42 home

Matchup fair odds

Vegas Golden Knights: 7.29

Carolina Hurricanes: 1.20

Tie: 30.52

Layer summary

Player baseline plus external live adjustments. Lineup context is informational.

Layer	Carolina Hurricanes	Vegas Golden Knights	Carolina Hurricanes note	Vegas Golden Knights note
Base model	30.01	21.94
Player baseline	+0.11	+0.80	Player-informed lineup baseline replacing the old team-only read.	Player-informed lineup baseline replacing the old team-only read.
Schedule baseline	+0.05	+0.05	quick rematch	quick rematch
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.00	No high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	No high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Goalie proxy	+0.07	-0.07	goalie input (+0.07) with Frederik Andersen.	goalie input (-0.07) with Carter Hart.
Residual memory	-0.18	-0.07	Small conservative team/opponent residual carryover.	Small conservative team/opponent residual carryover.
Lineup context	+0.00	+0.00	Projected lineup looks close to the usual core. Player-informed baseline already absorbs most of this.	Projected lineup looks close to the usual core. Player-informed baseline already absorbs most of this.

Bets to make right now

Chance prices first, model ladders underneath.

Bankroll 100,000 | Suggested Bet = Kelly × 0.25 | Juicers require EV 5%+ and expected win 80%+.

Playoff betting layer only: raw game projections stay unchanged. Fair odds and base line here already apply 70% of the historical replay drag: away top-seed -6.2%; home lower-seed +0.4%; playoff total -3.3%.

No Chance shot bet is currently clearing the EV thresholds for action.

Full odds worksheet

Full worksheet

Every Chance shot market priced by the current OLDMODEL2.0 betting layer, including negative-EV and non-validated ladders.

Type	FairOdds	Bookie	Expected Win	EV	Kelly%	Suggested Bet
same shots	22.71	13.70	4.40%	-39.67%	-3.12%	-781
Vegas Golden Knights shots	4.51	2.91	22.15%	-35.55%	-18.61%	-4653
Carolina Hurricanes shots	1.36	1.44	73.45%	+5.76%	+13.10%	3275
Carolina o26.5	1.68	1.62	59.43%	-3.73%	-6.02%	-1505
Carolina u26.5	2.46	2.18	40.57%	-11.55%	-9.79%	-2446
Carolina o27.5	1.88	1.83	53.10%	-2.83%	-3.41%	-853
Carolina u27.5	2.13	1.88	46.90%	-11.82%	-13.43%	-3358
Carolina o28.5	2.14	2.10	46.69%	-1.95%	-1.78%	-444
Carolina u28.5	1.88	1.66	53.31%	-11.50%	-17.43%	-4357
Vegas o22.5	1.88	1.58	53.28%	-15.82%	-27.28%	-6820
Vegas u22.5	2.14	2.26	46.72%	+5.59%	+4.44%	1110
Vegas o23.5	2.13	1.78	46.89%	-16.53%	-21.19%	-5298
Vegas u23.5	1.88	1.93	53.11%	+2.50%	+2.69%	671
Vegas o24.5	2.46	2.05	40.59%	-16.80%	-16.00%	-3999
Vegas u24.5	1.68	1.69	59.41%	+0.41%	+0.59%	147
o49.5	1.68	1.55	59.49%	-7.79%	-14.16%	-3541
u49.5	2.47	2.31	40.51%	-6.42%	-4.90%	-1226
o50.5	1.88	1.69	53.18%	-10.13%	-14.69%	-3672
u50.5	2.14	2.06	46.82%	-3.54%	-3.34%	-835
o51.5	2.14	1.86	46.78%	-12.99%	-15.11%	-3776
u51.5	1.88	1.86	53.22%	-1.01%	-1.17%	-293
o52.5	2.47	2.06	40.47%	-16.64%	-15.70%	-3925
u52.5	1.68	1.69	59.53%	+0.61%	+0.89%	222
o53.5	2.91	2.30	34.39%	-20.90%	-16.08%	-4019
u53.5	1.52	1.55	65.61%	+1.69%	+3.08%	770
o54.5	3.48	2.58	28.70%	-25.97%	-16.43%	-4109
u54.5	1.40	1.44	71.30%	+2.68%	+6.09%	1522

Carolina Hurricanes betting view29.84

Carolina Hurricanes betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 29.84, sigma 6.22.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 29.5 at fair over 1.92.
Under is playable down to line 30.5 at fair under 1.84.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
26.5	3.38	1.42
27.5	2.83	1.55
28.5	2.41	1.71
29.5	2.09	1.92
30.5	1.84	2.19
31.5	1.65	2.53
32.5	1.50	2.99

Vegas Golden Knights betting view22.92

Vegas Golden Knights betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 22.92, sigma 6.24.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 22.5 at fair over 1.90.
Under is playable down to line 23.5 at fair under 1.86.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
19.5	3.43	1.41
20.5	2.86	1.54
21.5	2.44	1.70
22.5	2.11	1.90
23.5	1.86	2.16
24.5	1.67	2.50
25.5	1.51	2.94

Deep dive tables and raw model context

Projection anatomy

Metric	Carolina Hurricanes	Vegas Golden Knights	L5 Away	L5 Home
Base SOG mean	30.01	21.94	31.09	20.26
Live SOG mean	30.07	22.65	31.09	20.26
Base model line	30.5	21.5	31.5	20.5
Live model line	30.5	22.5	31.5	20.5
CF mean	66.66	46.02	65.02	45.10
FF mean	47.33	33.14	46.59	31.42

Conversion and defensive priors

Layer	Carolina Hurricanes	Vegas Golden Knights
FF/CF offense	0.727	0.734
SF/FF offense	0.637	0.642
FFopp/CFopp defense	0.704	0.724
SFopp/FFopp defense	0.672	0.621

Rolling form context

Carolina Hurricanesaway

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	60.8 (rk 6/32)	0.727 (rk 19/32)	0.652 (rk 17/32)	45.4 (rk 1/32)	0.714	0.667
L10	65.5 (rk 2/32)	0.715 (rk 28/32)	0.637 (rk 20/32)	41.2 (rk 1/32)	0.709	0.675
L20	65.0 (rk 2/32)	0.715 (rk 31/32)	0.622 (rk 26/32)	46.5 (rk 1/32)	0.703	0.681

Vegas Golden Knightshome

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	50.0 (rk 27/32)	0.724 (rk 22/32)	0.674 (rk 8/32)	62.6 (rk 25/32)	0.687	0.642
L10	49.2 (rk 30/32)	0.738 (rk 10/32)	0.661 (rk 8/32)	64.8 (rk 29/32)	0.716	0.625
L20	54.3 (rk 20/32)	0.739 (rk 16/32)	0.636 (rk 20/32)	60.6 (rk 25/32)	0.718	0.606

Carolina Hurricanes full parsed DFO linesLast Game (2026-06-04)

Updated 2026-06-05T12:39:23.892Z | goalie Frederik Andersen (Unconfirmed)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Sebastian Aho (79.0) Andrei Svechnikov (75.3) Jordan Martinook (70.5)
F2	Logan Stankoven Taylor Hall (76.4) Jackson Blake
F3	Jordan Staal (73.2) Nikolaj Ehlers (75.7) Seth Jarvis
F4	Mark Jankowski (68.7) William Carrier (70.3) Eric Robinson (70.0)
D1	Jaccob Slavin (76.9) Jalen Chatfield
D2	K'Andre Miller Sean Walker (71.8)
D3	Shayne Gostisbehere (72.9) Alexander Nikishin

Vegas Golden Knights full parsed DFO linesLast Game (2026-06-04)

Updated 2026-06-05T12:41:40.177Z | goalie Carter Hart (Unconfirmed)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Jack Eichel (79.6) Ivan Barbashev (71.3) Pavel Dorofeyev
F2	William Karlsson (76.6) Brett Howden (69.2) Mitch Marner (76.6)
F3	Colton Sissons (69.6) Tomas Hertl (77.3) Mark Stone (79.8)
F4	Nic Dowd (71.8) Cole Smith Keegan Kolesar (73.1)
D1	Brayden McNabb (73.1) [GTD] Shea Theodore (78.2)
D2	Noah Hanifin (73.3) Rasmus Andersson (73.5)
D3	Jeremy Lauzon (71.9) Dylan Coghlan

Old-model text view plus live context

================================================================================ Match: Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights Model SOG (core blend vs L5-only form): Home: 21.9 (internal line 21.5) | L5-only: 20.3 (L5 line 20.5) Away: 30.0 (internal line 30.5) | L5-only: 31.1 (L5 line 31.5) Heads-up SOG (Poisson, 3-way incl ties): Home more SOG: 11.64% (fair 8.59) Away more SOG: 85.39% (fair 1.17) Tie SOG: 2.97% (fair 33.66) Pace and process layers: Core CF: Home 46.0, Away 66.7, total 112.7 L5 CF: Home 45.1, Away 65.0, total 110.1 Core FF: Home 33.1, Away 47.3 L5 FF: Home 31.4, Away 46.6 Model priors: Home FF/CF 0.734 | Away FF/CF 0.727 Home SF/FF 0.642 | Away SF/FF 0.637 Home FFopp/CFopp 0.724 | Away FFopp/CFopp 0.704 Home SFopp/FFopp 0.621 | Away SFopp/FFopp 0.672 Form windows: Vegas Golden Knights: L5: CF/g 50.0 (rk 27/32), FF/CF 0.724, SF/FF 0.674, CA/g 62.6 L10: CF/g 49.2 (rk 30/32), FF/CF 0.738, SF/FF 0.661, CA/g 64.8 L20: CF/g 54.3 (rk 20/32), FF/CF 0.739, SF/FF 0.636, CA/g 60.6 Carolina Hurricanes: L5: CF/g 60.8 (rk 6/32), FF/CF 0.727, SF/FF 0.652, CA/g 45.4 L10: CF/g 65.5 (rk 2/32), FF/CF 0.715, SF/FF 0.637, CA/g 41.2 L20: CF/g 65.0 (rk 2/32), FF/CF 0.715, SF/FF 0.622, CA/g 46.5 Model read: - Pace projection is fairly neutral at 112.7 combined CF. - Top-line edge is meaningful: Carolina Hurricanes carries a projected 8.1-shot advantage. - Core blend is tempering recent form: home +1.7 vs L5, away -1.1 vs L5. - Conversion layer: FF/CF edge +0.007, SF/FF edge +0.005, defensive FF suppression edge -0.019, defensive SF suppression edge +0.051. Live DFO delta: away +0.06, home +0.71.