OLDMODEL2.0 Preliminary Daily Report

16:00 CET baseline report for today's NHL slate

Games

2

Confirmed Goalies

2

Expected 2 | Unconfirmed 0

Mean DFO Move

0.09

Star shock 0.00 | as-of 2026-03-26

Chance Shot Feed

2

78 shot prices | 2026-03-27T21:24:50.929142+01:00

Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers

2026-03-27 | 2026-03-27T23:00:00Z UTC | as of 2026-03-26

Base numbers

26.5 - 27.4

Base total 53.9 SOG

Base edge +0.99 home

Final live numbers

24.8 - 28.3

Live total 53.1 SOG

Live edge +3.56 home

Matchup fair odds

New York Rangers: 1.51

Chicago Blackhawks: 3.47

Tie: 20.52

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Chicago Blackhawks	New York Rangers	Chicago Blackhawks note	New York Rangers note
Base model	26.46	27.45
DFO lineup + goalie	-0.12	+0.16	goalie input (-0.11) with Soderblom.	goalie input (+0.11) with Garand.
Schedule baseline	-0.55	+0.15	B2B, -1 rest, road trip 3	+1 rest
Schedule trigger	-1.00	+0.58	B2B away-away 121-500 km trip after a loss	1 rest day home 501-1000 km trip after a loss
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	Projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	Projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Defense depletion	+0.00	+0.00	Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired.	Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.01	No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team.	No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team.

Bets to make right now

Chance prices first, model ladders underneath.

Bankroll 100,000 | Suggested Bet = Kelly × 0.25 | Juicers require EV 5%+ and expected win 80%+.

Strong bets

EV between 10% and 20%.

Type	FairOdds	Bookie	Expected Win	EV	Kelly%	Suggested Bet
NY Rangers o27.5	1.75	1.94	57.10%	+10.77%	+11.46%	2865
NY Rangers o28.5	1.97	2.24	50.75%	+13.67%	+11.03%	2757
o49.5	1.38	1.55	72.21%	+11.93%	+21.68%	5421
o50.5	1.50	1.69	66.59%	+12.54%	+18.17%	4542
o51.5	1.65	1.86	60.57%	+12.66%	+14.72%	3680
o52.5	1.84	2.07	54.28%	+12.37%	+11.56%	2890
o53.5	2.09	2.31	47.89%	+10.63%	+8.11%	2028

Full odds worksheet

Full worksheet

Every Chance shot market priced by the current OLDMODEL2.0 betting layer.

Type	FairOdds	Bookie	Expected Win	EV	Kelly%	Suggested Bet
same shots	21.27	13.30	4.70%	-37.47%	-3.05%	-762
Chicago Blackhawks shots	3.77	2.64	26.55%	-29.91%	-18.24%	-4560
New York Rangers shots	1.45	1.52	68.75%	+4.50%	+8.65%	2163
Chicago o23.5	1.76	1.69	56.73%	-4.13%	-5.99%	-1497
Chicago u23.5	2.31	2.05	43.27%	-11.29%	-10.75%	-2688
Chicago o24.5	1.99	1.93	50.34%	-2.84%	-3.05%	-762
Chicago u24.5	2.01	1.78	49.66%	-11.61%	-14.89%	-3722
Chicago o25.5	2.28	2.25	43.95%	-1.11%	-0.89%	-221
Chicago u25.5	1.78	1.58	56.05%	-11.44%	-19.73%	-4933
NY Rangers o26.5	1.58	1.70	63.27%	+7.57%	+10.81%	2702
NY Rangers u26.5	2.72	2.04	36.73%	-25.08%	-24.11%	-6028
NY Rangers o27.5	1.75	1.94	57.10%	+10.77%	+11.46%	2865
NY Rangers u27.5	2.33	1.78	42.90%	-23.64%	-30.30%	-7576
NY Rangers o28.5	1.97	2.24	50.75%	+13.67%	+11.03%	2757
NY Rangers u28.5	2.03	1.58	49.25%	-22.18%	-38.24%	-9560
o49.5	1.38	1.55	72.21%	+11.93%	+21.68%	5421
u49.5	3.60	2.30	27.79%	-36.08%	-27.76%	-6939
o50.5	1.50	1.69	66.59%	+12.54%	+18.17%	4542
u50.5	2.99	2.06	33.41%	-31.17%	-29.41%	-7353
o51.5	1.65	1.86	60.57%	+12.66%	+14.72%	3680
u51.5	2.54	1.85	39.43%	-27.05%	-31.83%	-7957
o52.5	1.84	2.07	54.28%	+12.37%	+11.56%	2890
u52.5	2.19	1.68	45.72%	-23.20%	-34.12%	-8529
o53.5	2.09	2.31	47.89%	+10.63%	+8.11%	2028
u53.5	1.92	1.55	52.11%	-19.23%	-34.97%	-8742
o54.5	2.41	2.59	41.55%	+7.62%	+4.79%	1198
u54.5	1.71	1.44	58.45%	-15.83%	-35.99%	-8997

Chicago Blackhawks betting view24.55

Chicago Blackhawks betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 24.55, sigma 6.22.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 24.5 at fair over 1.99.
Under is playable down to line 25.5 at fair under 1.78.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
21.5	3.21	1.45
22.5	2.70	1.59
23.5	2.31	1.76
24.5	2.01	1.99
25.5	1.78	2.28
26.5	1.61	2.65
27.5	1.47	3.15

New York Rangers betting view28.62

New York Rangers betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 28.62, sigma 6.24.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 28.5 at fair over 1.97.
Under is playable down to line 29.5 at fair under 1.80.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
25.5	3.24	1.45
26.5	2.72	1.58
27.5	2.33	1.75
28.5	2.03	1.97
29.5	1.80	2.25
30.5	1.62	2.62
31.5	1.48	3.10

Deep dive tables and raw model context

Projection anatomy

Metric	Chicago Blackhawks	New York Rangers	L5 Away	L5 Home
Base SOG mean	26.46	27.45	28.48	29.57
Live SOG mean	24.79	28.35	28.48	29.57
Base model line	26.5	27.5	28.5	29.5
Live model line	24.5	28.5	28.5	29.5
CF mean	53.07	56.93	54.00	59.46
FF mean	40.29	42.60	41.64	46.02

Conversion and defensive priors

Layer	Chicago Blackhawks	New York Rangers
FF/CF offense	0.765	0.720
SF/FF offense	0.631	0.615
FFopp/CFopp defense	0.779	0.775
SFopp/FFopp defense	0.674	0.686

Rolling form context

Chicago Blackhawksaway

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	49.2 (rk 29/32)	0.752 (rk 18/32)	0.676 (rk 7/32)	71.2 (rk 32/32)	0.817	0.687
L10	48.3 (rk 30/32)	0.766 (rk 5/32)	0.649 (rk 14/32)	66.5 (rk 31/32)	0.785	0.682
L20	48.0 (rk 32/32)	0.757 (rk 8/32)	0.635 (rk 24/32)	61.0 (rk 23/32)	0.781	0.665

New York Rangershome

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	52.4 (rk 25/32)	0.756 (rk 15/32)	0.631 (rk 22/32)	56.6 (rk 14/32)	0.806	0.719
L10	50.4 (rk 29/32)	0.748 (rk 19/32)	0.631 (rk 24/32)	59.6 (rk 22/32)	0.767	0.698
L20	51.5 (rk 29/32)	0.715 (rk 30/32)	0.631 (rk 26/32)	59.7 (rk 20/32)	0.767	0.688

Chicago Blackhawks full parsed DFO linesLast Game (2026-03-26)

Updated 2026-03-27T14:09:12.294Z | goalie Soderblom (Expected)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Connor Bedard Ryan Greene Anton Frondell
F2	Frank Nazar Tyler Bertuzzi (74.6) Nick Lardis
F3	Ryan Donato (72.1) Andre Burakovsky (75.3) Ilya Mikheyev (74.0)
F4	Sacha Boisvert Teuvo Teravainen (77.2) Landon Slaggert
D1	Alex Vlasic Artyom Levshunov
D2	Wyatt Kaiser Sam Rinzel
D3	Ethan Del Mastro Louis Crevier

New York Rangers full parsed DFO linesVince Mercogliano

Updated 2026-03-27T14:36:17.906Z | goalie Garand (Expected)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Mika Zibanejad (84.1) Gabriel Perreault Alexis Lafrenière
F2	Vincent Trocheck (72.9) Will Cuylle Adam Sykora
F3	J.T. Miller (78.5) Tye Kartye Conor Sheary (71.8)
F4	Jonny Brodzinski (70.0) Taylor Raddysh Jaroslav Chmelar
D1	Vladislav Gavrikov (71.8) Adam Fox (75.1)
D2	Will Borgen Braden Schneider
D3	Drew Fortescue Matthew Robertson

Old-model text view plus live context

================================================================================ Match: Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers Model SOG (core blend vs L5-only form): Home: 27.4 (internal line 27.5) | L5-only: 29.6 (L5 line 29.5) Away: 26.5 (internal line 26.5) | L5-only: 28.5 (L5 line 28.5) Heads-up SOG (Poisson, 3-way incl ties): Home more SOG: 52.66% (fair 1.90) Away more SOG: 41.94% (fair 2.38) Tie SOG: 5.40% (fair 18.53) Pace and process layers: Core CF: Home 56.9, Away 53.1, total 110.0 L5 CF: Home 59.5, Away 54.0, total 113.5 Core FF: Home 42.6, Away 40.3 L5 FF: Home 46.0, Away 41.6 Model priors: Home FF/CF 0.720 | Away FF/CF 0.765 Home SF/FF 0.615 | Away SF/FF 0.631 Home FFopp/CFopp 0.775 | Away FFopp/CFopp 0.779 Home SFopp/FFopp 0.686 | Away SFopp/FFopp 0.674 Form windows: New York Rangers: L5: CF/g 52.4 (rk 25/32), FF/CF 0.756, SF/FF 0.631, CA/g 56.6 L10: CF/g 50.4 (rk 29/32), FF/CF 0.748, SF/FF 0.631, CA/g 59.6 L20: CF/g 51.5 (rk 29/32), FF/CF 0.715, SF/FF 0.631, CA/g 59.7 Chicago Blackhawks: L5: CF/g 49.2 (rk 29/32), FF/CF 0.752, SF/FF 0.676, CA/g 71.2 L10: CF/g 48.3 (rk 30/32), FF/CF 0.766, SF/FF 0.649, CA/g 66.5 L20: CF/g 48.0 (rk 32/32), FF/CF 0.757, SF/FF 0.635, CA/g 61.0 Model read: - Pace projection is fairly neutral at 110.0 combined CF. - Projected shot share is close enough that the matchup is mostly balanced. - Core blend is tempering recent form: home -2.1 vs L5, away -2.0 vs L5. - Conversion layer: FF/CF edge -0.046, SF/FF edge -0.016, defensive FF suppression edge +0.004, defensive SF suppression edge -0.012. Live DFO delta: away -1.67, home +0.90.

Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres

2026-03-27 | 2026-03-27T23:00:00Z UTC | as of 2026-03-26

Base numbers

27.8 - 29.4

Base total 57.1 SOG

Base edge +1.63 home

Final live numbers

27.9 - 30.1

Live total 58.0 SOG

Live edge +2.20 home

Matchup fair odds

Buffalo Sabres: 1.70

Detroit Red Wings: 2.77

Tie: 19.86

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Detroit Red Wings	Buffalo Sabres	Detroit Red Wings note	Buffalo Sabres note
Base model	27.75	29.38
DFO lineup + goalie	+0.01	+0.05	goalie input (-0.05) with John Gibson.	goalie input (+0.05) with Alex Lyon.
Schedule baseline	+0.15	-0.11	+1 rest	-1 rest, home stand
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.79	No high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	1 rest day home same-city trip after a loss
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	Projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	Projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Defense depletion	+0.00	+0.00	Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired.	Opponent blue line looks normal enough that no defense-specific shot boost fired.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.00	No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team.	No major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this team.

Bets to make right now

Chance prices first, model ladders underneath.

Bankroll 100,000 | Suggested Bet = Kelly × 0.25 | Juicers require EV 5%+ and expected win 80%+.

Strong bets

EV between 10% and 20%.

Type	FairOdds	Bookie	Expected Win	EV	Kelly%	Suggested Bet
Buffalo Sabres shots	1.63	1.85	61.36%	+13.52%	+15.91%	3977
Buffalo o27.5	1.48	1.65	67.75%	+11.79%	+18.14%	4534
Buffalo o28.5	1.62	1.86	61.81%	+14.97%	+17.41%	4352
Buffalo o29.5	1.80	2.13	55.58%	+18.39%	+16.27%	4068
o54.5	1.40	1.56	71.56%	+11.64%	+20.79%	5196
o55.5	1.52	1.69	65.89%	+11.35%	+16.45%	4113
o56.5	1.67	1.85	59.83%	+10.68%	+12.57%	3143

Full odds worksheet

Full worksheet

Every Chance shot market priced by the current OLDMODEL2.0 betting layer.

Type	FairOdds	Bookie	Expected Win	EV	Kelly%	Suggested Bet
same shots	20.28	13.00	4.93%	-35.91%	-2.99%	-748
Detroit Red Wings shots	2.97	2.04	33.71%	-31.24%	-30.04%	-7509
Buffalo Sabres shots	1.63	1.85	61.36%	+13.52%	+15.91%	3977
Buffalo o27.5	1.48	1.65	67.75%	+11.79%	+18.14%	4534
Buffalo u27.5	3.10	2.13	32.25%	-31.31%	-27.71%	-6927
Buffalo o28.5	1.62	1.86	61.81%	+14.97%	+17.41%	4352
Buffalo u28.5	2.62	1.85	38.19%	-29.35%	-34.53%	-8633
Buffalo o29.5	1.80	2.13	55.58%	+18.39%	+16.27%	4068
Buffalo u29.5	2.25	1.64	44.42%	-27.15%	-42.43%	-10607
Detroit o26.5	1.74	1.56	57.49%	-10.31%	-18.41%	-4603
Detroit u26.5	2.35	2.28	42.51%	-3.08%	-2.41%	-602
Detroit o27.5	1.96	1.75	51.12%	-10.54%	-14.05%	-3512
Detroit u27.5	2.05	1.97	48.88%	-3.71%	-3.82%	-956
Detroit o28.5	2.24	1.99	44.72%	-11.00%	-11.11%	-2778
Detroit u28.5	1.81	1.73	55.28%	-4.37%	-5.99%	-1497
o54.5	1.40	1.56	71.56%	+11.64%	+20.79%	5196
u54.5	3.52	2.29	28.44%	-34.88%	-27.04%	-6760
o55.5	1.52	1.69	65.89%	+11.35%	+16.45%	4113
u55.5	2.93	2.06	34.11%	-29.73%	-28.05%	-7012
o56.5	1.67	1.85	59.83%	+10.68%	+12.57%	3143
u56.5	2.49	1.86	40.17%	-25.28%	-29.40%	-7350
o57.5	1.87	2.04	53.52%	+9.19%	+8.83%	2209
u57.5	2.15	1.70	46.48%	-20.99%	-29.99%	-7497
o58.5	2.12	2.27	47.13%	+6.98%	+5.50%	1374
u58.5	1.89	1.57	52.87%	-16.99%	-29.81%	-7452
o59.5	2.45	2.53	40.81%	+3.24%	+2.12%	529
u59.5	1.69	1.46	59.19%	-13.58%	-29.51%	-7378

Detroit Red Wings betting view27.67

Detroit Red Wings betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 27.67, sigma 6.22.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 27.5 at fair over 1.96.
Under is playable down to line 28.5 at fair under 1.81.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
24.5	3.28	1.44
25.5	2.75	1.57
26.5	2.35	1.74
27.5	2.05	1.96
28.5	1.81	2.24
29.5	1.62	2.60
30.5	1.48	3.08

Buffalo Sabres betting view30.38

Buffalo Sabres betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 30.38, sigma 6.24.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 29.5 at fair over 1.80.
Under is playable down to line 30.5 at fair under 1.97.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
27.5	3.10	1.48
28.5	2.62	1.62
29.5	2.25	1.80
30.5	1.97	2.03
31.5	1.75	2.33
32.5	1.58	2.73
33.5	1.45	3.24

Deep dive tables and raw model context

Projection anatomy

Metric	Detroit Red Wings	Buffalo Sabres	L5 Away	L5 Home
Base SOG mean	27.75	29.38	26.52	28.67
Live SOG mean	27.91	30.11	26.52	28.67
Base model line	27.5	29.5	26.5	28.5
Live model line	27.5	30.5	26.5	28.5
CF mean	56.98	60.91	54.35	61.32
FF mean	42.35	45.06	40.62	44.57

Conversion and defensive priors

Layer	Detroit Red Wings	Buffalo Sabres
FF/CF offense	0.760	0.761
SF/FF offense	0.645	0.646
FFopp/CFopp defense	0.718	0.745
SFopp/FFopp defense	0.641	0.652

Rolling form context

Detroit Red Wingsaway

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	59.8 (rk 10/32)	0.783 (rk 4/32)	0.667 (rk 9/32)	55.4 (rk 12/32)	0.733	0.650
L10	58.3 (rk 15/32)	0.779 (rk 1/32)	0.648 (rk 15/32)	58.2 (rk 19/32)	0.718	0.641
L20	59.0 (rk 13/32)	0.751 (rk 12/32)	0.643 (rk 23/32)	59.4 (rk 19/32)	0.708	0.642

Buffalo Sabreshome

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	55.0 (rk 21/32)	0.716 (rk 26/32)	0.655 (rk 15/32)	57.4 (rk 16/32)	0.756	0.659
L10	59.4 (rk 14/32)	0.739 (rk 21/32)	0.647 (rk 16/32)	55.2 (rk 11/32)	0.737	0.631
L20	59.2 (rk 12/32)	0.760 (rk 6/32)	0.650 (rk 18/32)	58.5 (rk 16/32)	0.758	0.663

Detroit Red Wings full parsed DFO linesAnsar Khan

Updated 2026-03-27T12:55:14.496Z | goalie John Gibson (Confirmed)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Dylan Larkin (76.4) J.T. Compher (72.3) Lucas Raymond
F2	Andrew Copp (72.5) Alex DeBrincat (75.2) Patrick Kane (80.1)
F3	Emmitt Finnie Marco Kasper James van Riemsdyk (74.9)
F4	Mason Appleton (69.5) David Perron (75.3) Dominik Shine
D1	Simon Edvinsson Moritz Seider
D2	Ben Chiarot (73.8) Justin Faulk (74.1)
D3	Albert Johansson Jacob Bernard-Docker

Buffalo Sabres full parsed DFO linesLast Game (2026-03-25)

Updated 2026-03-26T14:04:54.439Z | goalie Alex Lyon (Confirmed)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Tage Thompson (68.5) Peyton Krebs Alex Tuch (73.4)
F2	Ryan McLeod Jason Zucker (74.6) Jack Quinn
F3	Josh Norris Noah Ostlund [GTD] Josh Doan
F4	Sam Carrick (72.7) Zach Benson Beck Malenstyn (73.2)
D1	Mattias Samuelsson Rasmus Dahlin (73.9)
D2	Owen Power Bowen Byram
D3	Logan Stanley Conor Timmins (73.0)

Old-model text view plus live context

================================================================================ Match: Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres Model SOG (core blend vs L5-only form): Home: 29.4 (internal line 29.5) | L5-only: 28.7 (L5 line 28.5) Away: 27.8 (internal line 27.5) | L5-only: 26.5 (L5 line 26.5) Heads-up SOG (Poisson, 3-way incl ties): Home more SOG: 55.92% (fair 1.79) Away more SOG: 38.91% (fair 2.57) Tie SOG: 5.17% (fair 19.34) Pace and process layers: Core CF: Home 60.9, Away 57.0, total 117.9 L5 CF: Home 61.3, Away 54.3, total 115.7 Core FF: Home 45.1, Away 42.3 L5 FF: Home 44.6, Away 40.6 Model priors: Home FF/CF 0.761 | Away FF/CF 0.760 Home SF/FF 0.646 | Away SF/FF 0.645 Home FFopp/CFopp 0.745 | Away FFopp/CFopp 0.718 Home SFopp/FFopp 0.652 | Away SFopp/FFopp 0.641 Form windows: Buffalo Sabres: L5: CF/g 55.0 (rk 21/32), FF/CF 0.716, SF/FF 0.655, CA/g 57.4 L10: CF/g 59.4 (rk 14/32), FF/CF 0.739, SF/FF 0.647, CA/g 55.2 L20: CF/g 59.2 (rk 12/32), FF/CF 0.760, SF/FF 0.650, CA/g 58.5 Detroit Red Wings: L5: CF/g 59.8 (rk 10/32), FF/CF 0.783, SF/FF 0.667, CA/g 55.4 L10: CF/g 58.3 (rk 15/32), FF/CF 0.779, SF/FF 0.648, CA/g 58.2 L20: CF/g 59.0 (rk 13/32), FF/CF 0.751, SF/FF 0.643, CA/g 59.4 Model read: - Model sees a fast game environment at 117.9 combined CF. - Shot edge is modest but clear for Buffalo Sabres (1.6 shots). - Core blend is tempering recent form: home +0.7 vs L5, away +1.2 vs L5. - Conversion layer: FF/CF edge +0.000, SF/FF edge +0.002, defensive FF suppression edge -0.027, defensive SF suppression edge -0.012. Live DFO delta: away +0.16, home +0.73.