OLDMODEL2.0 Preliminary Daily Report

16:00 CET baseline report for today's NHL slate

Games

Confirmed Goalies

Expected 1 | Unconfirmed 0

Mean Player Move

0.22

Goalie 0.04 | residual 0.47

Chance Shot Feed

47 shot prices | 2026-05-11T20:13:26.826158+02:00

Player board | Player shortlist

Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild

2026-05-11 | 2026-05-12T00:00:00Z UTC | as of 2026-05-10

Base numbers

30.6 - 26.4

Base total 56.9 SOG

Base edge -4.22 home

Final live numbers

33.4 - 27.0

Live total 60.4 SOG

Live edge -6.40 home

Matchup fair odds

Minnesota Wild: 5.35

Colorado Avalanche: 1.29

Tie: 27.24

Layer summary

Player baseline plus external live adjustments. Lineup context is informational.

Layer	Colorado Avalanche	Minnesota Wild	Colorado Avalanche note	Minnesota Wild note
Base model	30.58	26.36
Player baseline	+0.23	+0.21	Player-informed lineup baseline replacing the old team-only read.	Player-informed lineup baseline replacing the old team-only read.
Schedule baseline	-0.05	+0.09	road trip 2, quick rematch	home stand, quick rematch
Schedule trigger	+1.00	+0.00	1 rest day away same-city trip after a loss	No high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Goalie proxy	+0.00	+0.07	goalie proxy (+0.00) with Mackenzie Blackwood.	goalie input (+0.07) with Wallstedt.
Residual memory	+0.66	+0.29	Small conservative team/opponent residual carryover.	Small conservative team/opponent residual carryover.
Lineup context	+0.00	+0.00	Projected lineup looks close to the usual core. Player-informed baseline already absorbs most of this.	DFO injury/news flags Joel Eriksson Ek, Jonas Brodin, Danila Yurov as effectively unavailable tonight. -0.16 from roster-event memory: own attack missing Joel Eriksson Ek.

Bets to make right now

Chance prices first, model ladders underneath.

Bankroll 100,000 | Suggested Bet = Kelly × 0.25 | Juicers require EV 5%+ and expected win 80%+.

Playoff betting layer only: raw game projections stay unchanged. Fair odds and base line here already apply 70% of the historical replay drag: away top-seed -6.2%; home lower-seed +0.4%; playoff total -3.2%.

No Chance shot bet is currently clearing the EV thresholds for action.

Full odds worksheet

Full worksheet

Every Chance shot market priced by the current OLDMODEL2.0 betting layer, including negative-EV and non-validated ladders.

Type	FairOdds	Bookie	Expected Win	EV	Kelly%	Suggested Bet
same shots	21.53	14.30	4.65%	-33.57%	-2.52%	-631
Minnesota Wild shots	3.45	2.83	29.01%	-17.91%	-9.78%	-2446
Colorado Avalanche shots	1.51	1.45	66.35%	-3.80%	-8.44%	-2110
Colorado o30.5	1.85	1.59	53.98%	-14.18%	-24.03%	-6007
Colorado u30.5	2.17	2.23	46.02%	+2.63%	+2.14%	535
Colorado o31.5	2.10	1.78	47.57%	-15.33%	-19.65%	-4912
Colorado u31.5	1.91	1.94	52.43%	+1.72%	+1.82%	456
Colorado o32.5	2.43	2.02	41.22%	-16.73%	-16.40%	-4099
Colorado u32.5	1.70	1.72	58.78%	+1.09%	+1.52%	380
Minnesota o27.5	2.03	1.74	49.32%	-14.18%	-19.17%	-4792
Minnesota u27.5	1.97	1.99	50.68%	+0.86%	+0.86%	216
Minnesota o28.5	2.33	1.97	42.96%	-15.36%	-15.83%	-3958
Minnesota u28.5	1.75	1.75	57.04%	-0.19%	-0.25%	-63
Minnesota o29.5	2.72	2.27	36.79%	-16.49%	-12.98%	-3246
Minnesota u29.5	1.58	1.57	63.21%	-0.76%	-1.33%	-332
o57.5	1.77	1.52	56.47%	-14.17%	-27.25%	-6813
u57.5	2.30	2.38	43.53%	+3.61%	+2.62%	654
o58.5	2.00	1.64	50.09%	-17.85%	-27.89%	-6972
u58.5	2.00	2.14	49.91%	+6.80%	+5.97%	1492
o59.5	2.29	1.78	43.72%	-22.19%	-28.44%	-7111
u59.5	1.78	1.94	56.28%	+9.19%	+9.78%	2445
o60.5	2.67	1.95	37.50%	-26.88%	-28.29%	-7073
u60.5	1.60	1.77	62.50%	+10.63%	+13.80%	3451
o61.5	3.17	2.16	31.59%	-31.77%	-27.38%	-6846
u61.5	1.46	1.63	68.41%	+11.51%	+18.27%	4567
o62.5	3.83	2.39	26.12%	-37.58%	-27.03%	-6758
u62.5	1.35	1.51	73.88%	+11.56%	+22.67%	5667

Colorado Avalanche betting view33.18

Colorado Avalanche betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 33.18, sigma 6.22.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 32.5 at fair over 1.84.
Under is playable down to line 33.5 at fair under 1.92.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
30.5	3.00	1.50
31.5	2.54	1.65
32.5	2.19	1.84
33.5	1.92	2.09
34.5	1.71	2.40
35.5	1.55	2.82
36.5	1.42	3.37

Minnesota Wild betting view27.28

Minnesota Wild betting suggestion

Adjusted mean 27.28, sigma 6.24.
At fixed market odds 2.00, playable bands are where the fair odds are below 2.00.
Over is playable up to line 26.5 at fair over 1.82.
Under is playable down to line 27.5 at fair under 1.95.

Line	Fair U	Fair O
24.5	3.05	1.49
25.5	2.58	1.63
26.5	2.22	1.82
27.5	1.95	2.06
28.5	1.73	2.37
29.5	1.57	2.77
30.5	1.43	3.30

Deep dive tables and raw model context

Projection anatomy

Metric	Colorado Avalanche	Minnesota Wild	L5 Away	L5 Home
Base SOG mean	30.58	26.36	28.85	26.80
Live SOG mean	33.41	27.01	28.85	26.80
Base model line	30.5	26.5	28.5	26.5
Live model line	33.5	27.5	28.5	26.5
CF mean	63.35	54.52	57.43	57.98
FF mean	46.38	40.41	41.80	41.58

Conversion and defensive priors

Layer	Colorado Avalanche	Minnesota Wild
FF/CF offense	0.742	0.760
SF/FF offense	0.657	0.651
FFopp/CFopp defense	0.738	0.721
SFopp/FFopp defense	0.653	0.651

Rolling form context

Colorado Avalancheaway

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	65.0 (rk 3/32)	0.751 (rk 9/32)	0.680 (rk 8/32)	59.2 (rk 22/32)	0.743	0.650
L10	67.0 (rk 1/32)	0.745 (rk 9/32)	0.653 (rk 12/32)	56.4 (rk 10/32)	0.738	0.668
L20	66.5 (rk 2/32)	0.746 (rk 12/32)	0.658 (rk 9/32)	56.0 (rk 10/32)	0.742	0.641

Minnesota Wildhome

Window	CF/g	FF/CF	SF/FF	CA/g	FFopp/CFopp	SFopp/FFopp
L5	56.8 (rk 14/32)	0.768 (rk 4/32)	0.619 (rk 26/32)	58.6 (rk 20/32)	0.744	0.679
L10	53.6 (rk 22/32)	0.757 (rk 4/32)	0.633 (rk 22/32)	60.5 (rk 24/32)	0.737	0.657
L20	56.3 (rk 18/32)	0.766 (rk 2/32)	0.649 (rk 15/32)	59.5 (rk 26/32)	0.722	0.643

Colorado Avalanche full parsed DFO linesProjected

Updated 2026-05-11T18:25:11.133Z | goalie Mackenzie Blackwood (Confirmed)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Nathan MacKinnon (84.2) Gabriel Landeskog (78.4) Martin Necas (71.5)
F2	Brock Nelson (74.1) Artturi Lehkonen (71.7) Valeri Nichushkin (72.9)
F3	Nazem Kadri (76.4) Ross Colton Nicolas Roy (72.9)
F4	Jack Drury Parker Kelly Logan O'Connor (73.2)
D1	Devon Toews (73.9) Cale Makar (78.3)
D2	Brett Kulak (73.4) Sam Malinski
D3	Brent Burns (77.7) Josh Manson (71.2) [GTD]

Minnesota Wild full parsed DFO linesLast Game (Game 3 vs. COL)

Updated 2026-05-11T14:38:48.055Z | goalie Wallstedt (Expected)

DFO Group	Projected Players
F1	Ryan Hartman (71.2) Kirill Kaprizov Mats Zuccarello (71.8)
F2	Marcus Johansson (72.1) Matt Boldy
F3	Michael McCarron (67.7) Yakov Trenin (72.1) Vladimir Tarasenko (80.4)
F4	Nico Sturm (73.1) Marcus Foligno (71.7) Nick Foligno (72.5)
D1	Quinn Hughes (75.2) Brock Faber
D2	Daemon Hunt Jared Spurgeon (76.1)
D3	Jacob Middleton (73.1) Zach Bogosian (71.4)

Old-model text view plus live context

================================================================================ Match: Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild Model SOG (core blend vs L5-only form): Home: 26.4 (internal line 26.5) | L5-only: 26.8 (L5 line 26.5) Away: 30.6 (internal line 30.5) | L5-only: 28.9 (L5 line 28.5) Heads-up SOG (Poisson, 3-way incl ties): Home more SOG: 26.56% (fair 3.77) Away more SOG: 68.90% (fair 1.45) Tie SOG: 4.54% (fair 22.04) Pace and process layers: Core CF: Home 54.5, Away 63.3, total 117.9 L5 CF: Home 58.0, Away 57.4, total 115.4 Core FF: Home 40.4, Away 46.4 L5 FF: Home 41.6, Away 41.8 Model priors: Home FF/CF 0.760 | Away FF/CF 0.742 Home SF/FF 0.651 | Away SF/FF 0.657 Home FFopp/CFopp 0.721 | Away FFopp/CFopp 0.738 Home SFopp/FFopp 0.651 | Away SFopp/FFopp 0.653 Form windows: Minnesota Wild: L5: CF/g 56.8 (rk 14/32), FF/CF 0.768, SF/FF 0.619, CA/g 58.6 L10: CF/g 53.6 (rk 22/32), FF/CF 0.757, SF/FF 0.633, CA/g 60.5 L20: CF/g 56.3 (rk 18/32), FF/CF 0.766, SF/FF 0.649, CA/g 59.5 Colorado Avalanche: L5: CF/g 65.0 (rk 3/32), FF/CF 0.751, SF/FF 0.680, CA/g 59.2 L10: CF/g 67.0 (rk 1/32), FF/CF 0.745, SF/FF 0.653, CA/g 56.4 L20: CF/g 66.5 (rk 2/32), FF/CF 0.746, SF/FF 0.658, CA/g 56.0 Model read: - Model sees a fast game environment at 117.9 combined CF. - Top-line edge is meaningful: Colorado Avalanche carries a projected 4.2-shot advantage. - Core blend is tempering recent form: home -0.4 vs L5, away +1.7 vs L5. - Conversion layer: FF/CF edge +0.017, SF/FF edge -0.006, defensive FF suppression edge +0.017, defensive SF suppression edge +0.002. Live DFO delta: away +2.84, home +0.66.