Phuck IT Playoff Layer
NHL Playoff Playbook
This page is organized only one way: Game 1 through Game 7, and inside each game the three markets are always Goals, Penalties, and Shots. Every note is placed under the exact game and market where it belongs.
1315 playoff games from 15 seasons in the archive. Shots replay sample: 174 games from 2024-25. Strongest portable signals found: 4. Conditional signals worth respecting but not auto-betting: 7.
Game-By-Game Market Guide
Read the game you are betting, then read only the market you care about. Every section below follows the same order: Goals, Penalties, Shots.
Game 1
Game 1
Game 1 is mostly a baseline game. Nothing from the playoff study is strong enough to create a default bet by game number alone.
Goals
Baseline: 1.64 first-period goals, 56.0% goal-by-10 rate.
What to look for: No default goal bet. Use your matchup total and team context, not the fact that it is Game 1.
Why: Game 1 did not produce a durable goals edge by itself. It is not meaningfully tighter or looser than the overall playoff baseline.
Penalties
Baseline: 8.41 regulation penalties, 20.74 regulation PIM.
What to look for: No default penalties bet.
Why: Game 1 sits in the normal playoff range. It is not one of the cleaner under-whistle spots and not one of the loose penalty spikes either.
Shots
Baseline: 59.1 regulation total shots.
What to look for: No Game-1-specific shots bet, but be careful with aggressive overs. The replay still leaned model-too-high more often than not.
Why: In ordinary Game 1 replay contexts, away lower-seed lines ran +1.92 shots high with 63.3% under at our line, and home top-seed lines ran +1.62 high with 70.0% under.
ML
Baseline: No strong Game 1 ML baseline beyond normal home-ice assumptions.
What to look for: No default ML bet.
Why: The playoff study did not find a durable Game 1 side edge by game number alone, so use your normal matchup model here.
Game 2
Game 2
Game 2 is the loosest penalty baseline on the board and one of the quicker early-goal baselines, but still not strong enough to force a blind bet.
Goals
Baseline: 1.70 first-period goals, 60.0% goal-by-10 rate.
What to look for: No default over, but if you want the naturally quickest early-goal baseline before pressure filters, it is Game 2.
Why: When the top seed is home and down 0-1, the early-goal baseline rises to 64.6% by 10 and 1.74 first-period goals. That is interesting, but not stable enough to become a blind over rule.
Penalties
Baseline: 10.42 regulation penalties, 28.04 regulation PIM.
What to look for: Do not auto-bet under here. If anything, this is the highest normal penalty baseline in the series.
Why: Game 2 averaged the most penalties and PIM of any standard game number. That means a normal-looking Game 2 line is not automatically too high.
Shots
Baseline: 59.0 regulation total shots.
What to look for: Shots still lean under model in normal Game 2 replay. The better angle is caution on team-shots overs, especially away side.
Why: Away lower-seed Game 2 lines ran +3.27 shots high and finished under 80.0% of the time at our line. Home top-seed Game 2 lines were also +2.03 high.
ML
Baseline: Top-seed home up 1-0 won 54.3%; top-seed home down 0-1 won 59.4%.
What to look for: No default ML bet, but if the top seed is home down 0-1, a small bounceback lean is more reasonable than a fade.
Why: The home-bounceback version sits at 59.4%, but it was not one of the stable side signals strong enough to become a blind rule.
Game 3
Game 3
Game 3 is mostly a caution game: no default goals or penalties edge, but one of the clearest warnings against auto-shading shots down lives here.
Goals
Baseline: 1.53 first-period goals, 51.6% goal-by-10 rate.
What to look for: No default Game 3 goal bet.
Why: The two main home states are very similar on early scoring: 1-1 series came in at 1.59 first-period goals, and 0-2 series came in at 1.60. Nothing here is strong enough to create a default totals angle.
Penalties
Baseline: 10.12 regulation penalties, 26.10 regulation PIM.
What to look for: No default penalties bet.
Why: Game 3 is still on the higher side for whistles, but there is no stable penalty signal here like the Game 7 or home-closeout under spots.
Shots
Baseline: 59.6 regulation total shots.
What to look for: This is one of the few games where you should be careful auto-shading shots down. Home lower-seed Game 3 can run higher than the model.
Why: In neutral lower-seed-home Game 3 replay, the home shots line ran 1.76 shots too low and only 30.0% of rows finished under at our line. This is one of the clearest anti-under warnings on the page.
ML
Baseline: Lower-seed home at 1-1 won 42.2%; lower-seed home down 0-2 won 60.0%.
What to look for: Best Game 3 ML angle is fade the lower-seed home team when the series is 1-1. Do not blindly auto-back the 0-2 bounceback spot.
Why: The 1-1 split-series state was one of the actual side signals: only 42.2% home win rate. The 0-2 bounceback bucket showed 60.0%, but it was too fragile and inconsistent across seasons.
Game 4
Game 4
Game 4 has no clean all-purpose betting rule. It is mostly a warning game: some pockets speed up, others do not, so you should not force a broad playoff adjustment.
Goals
Baseline: 1.58 first-period goals, 53.8% goal-by-10 rate.
What to look for: No default goal bet.
Why: If the lower-seed home team is down 0-3, the game can get looser early at 64.3% by 10 and 1.96 first-period goals, but that bucket is too small to become a rule.
Penalties
Baseline: 8.96 regulation penalties, 22.85 regulation PIM.
What to look for: No default penalties bet.
Why: Game 4 sits in the middle of the playoff penalty range. Nothing from the study says it should be treated as an automatic over or under whistle game.
Shots
Baseline: 58.3 regulation total shots.
What to look for: Mixed shot environment. Do not blindly shade both teams down.
Why: Home lower-seed Game 4 replay was one of the few over-friendly spots: the home line ran 0.78 shots too low. But away top-seed Game 4 still leaned under with +0.92 bias and 60.9% under at our line.
ML
Baseline: Home up 2-1 won 44.6%; home down 0-3 won 60.7%.
What to look for: No default ML bet.
Why: The Game 4 side buckets pull in different directions and the samples are not clean enough to create a portable side rule here.
Game 5
Game 5
Game 5 is where state matters more than the number itself. The important split is tied-series home pressure versus closeout pressure.
Goals
Baseline: 1.55 first-period goals, 54.0% goal-by-10 rate.
What to look for: No default totals bet, but note the split: survival versions start faster than closeout versions.
Why: When the top seed is home down 1-3, early scoring rises to 1.76 first-period goals. When the top seed is home up 3-1, it drops to 1.51. Useful context, but not a blind totals rule by itself.
Penalties
Baseline: 8.27 regulation penalties, 20.19 regulation PIM.
What to look for: Best Game 5 penalty angle is the home-closeout version: under penalties first, under PIM second.
Why: Home can-close games averaged 7.52 penalties and 17.02 PIM. That is one of the cleaner under-whistle environments in the whole study.
Shots
Baseline: 58.9 regulation total shots.
What to look for: Shots still lean model-too-high more than model-too-low. Team-shots under remains the safer default than chasing overs.
Why: In replay, away lower-seed Game 5 lines were +1.26 shots high when facing elimination and +0.80 high even in neutral spots. Home top-seed Game 5 lines were also slightly high at +0.95.
ML
Baseline: Top-seed home at 2-2 won 59.6%; top-seed home up 3-1 won 44.8%; top-seed home down 1-3 won 45.9%.
What to look for: Best Game 5 ML angle is top-seed home in a 2-2 series.
Why: This was one of the real side signals in the study: 59.6% home win rate in the tied-series bucket. The home-closeout 3-1 version was actually weaker, so do not confuse ML with the cleaner penalties under spot there.
Game 6
Game 6
Game 6 is the strongest non-Game-7 market split on the page, but only if you keep the markets separated properly.
Goals
Baseline: 1.51 first-period goals, 56.1% goal-by-10 rate.
What to look for: Best angle is lower-seed home down 2-3: look at 1P under goals or no-goal-early first.
Why: In the down-2-3 version, first-period goals fall to 1.38 and the first goal lands much later. In the up-3-2 closeout mirror, first-period goals are 1.75. That is why this is a slower-start angle, not a generic Game 6 under-everything angle.
Penalties
Baseline: 7.32 regulation penalties, 18.39 regulation PIM.
What to look for: Do not auto-bet penalty under just because the game is big. If you play this state, PIM is more interesting than whistle-count under.
Why: The lower-seed-home-down-2-3 state carries more PIM, not less: 20.33 versus 15.09 in the up-3-2 mirror. So the clean read here is early-goal under, not blanket penalty suppression.
Shots
Baseline: 57.3 regulation total shots.
What to look for: Do not auto-bet shots over just because one team faces elimination. The stronger replay note is still on the under side, especially for the away team that can close.
Why: In replay, away top-seed Game 6 lines in team-can-close spots ran +4.25 shots high and finished under 83.3% of the time. Even the home lower-seed facing-elimination side still leaned slightly high at +0.49.
ML
Baseline: Lower-seed home down 2-3 won 51.6%; lower-seed home up 3-2 won 61.8%.
What to look for: No strong standalone ML angle. Treat Game 6 more as a goals / pace split than a side split.
Why: The two mirrors differ, but not in the same clean, stable way as the Game 3 split-series fade-home or Game 5 tied-series top-seed-home angle.
Game 7
Game 7
Game 7 is the cleanest game number on the board. This is the one place where the page should read like an actual playbook, not a maybe.
Goals
Baseline: 1.26 first-period goals, 43.5% goal-by-10 rate.
What to look for: Secondary angle: smaller under on full-game goals or no-goal-early / 1P under.
Why: Game 7 averages 4.58 regulation goals and only 43.5% goal-by-10. That is clearly lower-event than a normal playoff game, but still not as strong as the penalty edge.
Penalties
Baseline: 5.61 regulation penalties, 12.07 regulation PIM.
What to look for: Best bet on the page: under total penalties first. If that market does not exist, under total PIM second.
Why: This is the strongest portable playoff signal in the study. Game 7 averaged only 5.61 penalties and 12.07 PIM, far below normal playoff levels.
Shots
Baseline: 57.3 regulation total shots.
What to look for: Shots still lean under model in Game 7. If the book hangs a regular-looking team-shots number, the under side deserves a hard look.
Why: The replay ran +3.32 shots high in Game 7 overall and finished under our line 71.4% of the time. Add the general away-team under bias and it stays a cautious-under environment.
ML
Baseline: Home team won 53.6% of Game 7s.
What to look for: No default Game 7 ML bet by game number alone.
Why: Game 7 is where penalties and lower-event reads are the real edge. The side itself is much closer to a normal coin-flip plus home-ice story.
Research Appendix
This is the audit table behind the guide above. If you only care about what to look for in each game, the game sections are the main page. If you want to inspect stability and sample quality, use this table.
| Signal |
Market |
Trust tier |
Delta |
Same-direction seasons |
Bootstrap CI |
Plain bet translation |
| Game 6 lower-seed home down 2-3 under first-period goals | Early goals | Conditional | -0.37 | 10/13 | [-0.88, +0.05] | Use this as support for 1P under goals or no-goal-early in this exact Game 6 state. It is not a blind full-game under. |
| Game 7 slower first 10 minutes | Early goals | Conditional | -0.117 | 11/15 | [-0.245, +0.016] | Supports no-goal-by-10 or 1P under looks in Game 7. Treat it as secondary support, not the main bet. |
| Game 6 lower-seed home down 2-3 starts later | Early goals | Conditional | +5.54 | 9/13 | [-0.06, +12.35] | Same translation as above: slower-start support for no-goal-early or 1P under in this exact Game 6 state. |
| Game 6 lower-seed home down 2-3 carries more PIM | Penalties | Conditional | +5.24 | 9/13 | [+0.25, +12.38] | Do not read this as shots over. If you want action here, it supports PIM interest more than pace inflation. |
| Game 3 split series is anti-home for lower seed | Side | Conditional | -0.174 | 11/15 | [-0.311, -0.044] | Small fade of the lower-seed home side when the price is still close. |
| Game 5 tied series favors top-seed home | Side | Conditional | +0.144 | 11/15 | [-0.003, +0.273] | Small top-seed home side angle when the price is still reasonable. |
| Game 7 under goals | Totals | Conditional | -0.83 | 11/15 | [-1.31, -0.32] | Secondary Game 7 angle: check full-game under after you check penalties and PIM. |
| Game 3 lower-seed home down 0-2 bounceback | Side | Fragile | +0.100 | 6/11 | [-0.167, +0.292] | No default bet. Only use it if your matchup model already likes that side. |
| Game 7 under PIM | Penalties | Portable | -10.97 | 15/15 | [-12.91, -9.27] | Best Game 7 penalty angle if the book hangs a normal playoff PIM line: under total PIM. |
| Game 7 under penalties | Penalties | Portable | -3.42 | 15/15 | [-4.07, -2.78] | Best Game 7 penalty angle if the book hangs a normal playoff penalties-count line: under total penalties. |
| Home can-close games under PIM | Penalties | Portable | -6.12 | 13/15 | [-8.62, -3.76] | If the home team can close the series and the book still posts a normal playoff PIM number, check under total PIM. |
| Home can-close games under penalties | Penalties | Portable | -1.50 | 13/15 | [-2.19, -0.85] | If the home team can close the series and the book still posts a normal playoff penalties-count number, check under total penalties. |