Prime ML Markets

Chance NHL markets beyond shots, sorted by start time.

17 matches priced | 411 matched market rows | bankroll guide 100,000 at Kelly × 0.25

Matchup	ML	3Way	DNB	Total
Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers Projected goals 2.50 | 3.31	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.42 1.70 Chance 2.45 1.56 Edge +1.1% -8.4% Win chance 41.27% 58.73%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 3.51 3.90 2.18 Chance 3.41 4.16 1.96 Edge -3.0% +6.6% -10.0% Win chance 28.46% 25.63% 45.91%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.61 1.62 Chance 2.58 1.51 Edge -1.3% -6.8% Win chance 38.26% 61.74%	Total Over Under Projection 2.53 1.65 Chance 2.05 1.80 Edge -19.0% +8.8% Win chance 39.53% 60.47% main line 6.5
Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres Projected goals 2.78 | 3.37	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.26 1.79 Chance 2.29 1.64 Edge +1.4% -8.6% Win chance 44.26% 55.74%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 3.18 3.89 2.33 Chance 3.13 4.05 2.09 Edge -1.7% +4.1% -10.4% Win chance 31.42% 25.69% 42.89%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.37 1.73 Chance 2.37 1.60 Edge +0.2% -7.6% Win chance 42.28% 57.72%	Total Over Under Projection 2.21 1.82 Chance 2.06 1.79 Edge -6.9% -1.9% Win chance 45.18% 54.82% main line 6.5
Anaheim Ducks @ Edmonton Oilers Projected goals 3.43 | 3.62	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.03 1.97 Chance 2.05 1.69 Edge +0.9% -14.2% Win chance 49.23% 50.77%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 2.73 3.96 2.62 Chance 2.73 3.90 2.20 Edge -0.1% -1.5% -16.1% Win chance 36.60% 25.27% 38.14%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.04 1.96 Chance 2.09 1.66 Edge +2.3% -15.3% Win chance 48.97% 51.03%	Total Over Under Projection 1.69 2.45 Chance 1.70 2.02 Edge +0.5% -17.4% Win chance 59.12% 40.88% main line 6.5
Dallas Stars @ Pittsburgh Penguins Projected goals 3.44 | 3.16	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 1.83 2.21 Chance 1.80 1.90 Edge -1.4% -14.1% Win chance 54.77% 45.23%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 2.38 3.94 3.07 Chance 2.40 3.70 2.56 Edge +1.0% -6.0% -16.7% Win chance 42.07% 25.40% 32.53%	DNB 1 2 Projection 1.77 2.29 Chance 1.79 1.91 Edge +0.9% -16.7% Win chance 56.39% 43.61%	Total Over Under Projection 1.91 2.10 Chance 1.88 1.82 Edge -1.6% -13.3% Win chance 52.36% 47.64% main line 6.5
Florida Panthers @ New York Islanders Projected goals 3.26 | 3.27	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 1.95 2.05 Chance 2.20 1.66 Edge +12.9% -19.2% Win chance 51.33% 48.67%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 2.60 3.90 2.79 Chance 2.94 3.99 2.12 Edge +13.2% +2.3% -24.0% Win chance 38.51% 25.64% 35.85%	DNB 1 2 Projection 1.93 2.07 Chance 2.27 1.62 Edge +17.6% -21.9% Win chance 51.79% 48.21%	Total Over Under Projection 1.95 2.05 Chance 2.10 1.72 Edge +7.8% -16.3% Win chance 51.34% 48.66% main line 6.5
Minnesota Wild @ Boston Bruins Projected goals 3.28 | 3.43	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.02 1.98 Chance 1.89 1.81 Edge -6.3% -8.8% Win chance 49.59% 50.41%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 2.72 3.92 2.66 Chance 2.51 3.80 2.40 Edge -7.6% -3.0% -9.6% Win chance 36.83% 25.52% 37.65%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.02 1.98 Chance 1.89 1.81 Edge -6.6% -8.5% Win chance 49.44% 50.56%	Total Over Under Projection 1.85 2.17 Chance 1.90 1.80 Edge +2.6% -17.2% Win chance 54.00% 46.00% main line 6.5
Montreal Canadiens @ Nashville Predators Projected goals 3.40 | 3.54	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.01 1.99 Chance 1.79 1.92 Edge -11.1% -3.4% Win chance 49.68% 50.32%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 2.70 3.94 2.66 Chance 2.40 3.60 2.61 Edge -11.2% -8.7% -1.7% Win chance 37.00% 25.35% 37.65%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.02 1.98 Chance 1.77 1.93 Edge -12.3% -2.7% Win chance 49.57% 50.43%	Total Over Under Projection 1.74 2.35 Chance 1.81 1.90 Edge +4.0% -19.2% Win chance 57.45% 42.55% main line 6.5
New Jersey Devils @ Carolina Hurricanes Projected goals 2.92 | 3.64	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.34 1.75 Chance 2.38 1.51 Edge +1.7% -13.6% Win chance 42.75% 57.25%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 3.31 3.98 2.24 Chance 3.21 4.19 1.90 Edge -3.1% +5.4% -15.1% Win chance 30.17% 25.16% 44.67%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.48 1.68 Chance 2.49 1.46 Edge +0.4% -12.9% Win chance 40.31% 59.69%	Total Over Under Projection 1.63 2.60 Chance 1.68 2.06 Edge +3.3% -20.7% Win chance 61.49% 38.51% main line 5.5
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning Projected goals 3.36 | 3.06	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 1.82 2.22 Chance 2.30 1.60 Edge +26.6% -28.1% Win chance 55.04% 44.96%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 2.37 3.92 3.11 Chance 3.11 4.00 2.04 Edge +31.5% +2.1% -34.3% Win chance 42.27% 25.53% 32.20%	DNB 1 2 Projection 1.76 2.31 Chance 2.39 1.56 Edge +35.7% -32.6% Win chance 56.76% 43.24%	Total Over Under Projection 2.02 1.98 Chance 1.99 1.80 Edge -1.7% -8.9% Win chance 49.41% 50.59% main line 6.5
Philadelphia Flyers @ Detroit Red Wings Projected goals 2.79 | 3.25	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.19 1.84 Chance 2.06 1.68 Edge -5.8% -8.8% Win chance 45.72% 54.28%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 3.05 3.86 2.42 Chance 2.78 3.81 2.20 Edge -9.0% -1.2% -9.1% Win chance 32.75% 25.94% 41.31%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.26 1.79 Chance 2.11 1.65 Edge -6.7% -8.0% Win chance 44.22% 55.78%	Total Over Under Projection 1.88 2.14 Chance 1.80 1.90 Edge -4.1% -11.2% Win chance 53.25% 46.75% main line 5.5
San Jose Sharks @ Columbus Blue Jackets Projected goals 2.71 | 3.62	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.48 1.68 Chance 2.56 1.44 Edge +3.4% -14.2% Win chance 40.39% 59.61%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 3.59 4.00 2.12 Chance 3.54 4.20 1.80 Edge -1.3% +4.9% -15.2% Win chance 27.89% 24.99% 47.12%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.69 1.59 Chance 2.73 1.39 Edge +1.5% -12.7% Win chance 37.18% 62.82%	Total Over Under Projection 2.09 1.92 Chance 1.85 1.85 Edge -11.5% -3.5% Win chance 47.82% 52.18% main line 6.5
Seattle Kraken @ Buffalo Sabres Projected goals 2.49 | 3.74	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.76 1.57 Chance 2.49 1.46 Edge -9.7% -6.9% Win chance 36.25% 63.75%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 4.14 4.14 1.94 Chance 3.43 4.11 1.85 Edge -17.1% -0.6% -4.4% Win chance 24.16% 24.18% 51.66%	DNB 1 2 Projection 3.14 1.47 Chance 2.63 1.41 Edge -16.2% -3.9% Win chance 31.87% 68.13%	Total Over Under Projection 2.18 1.85 Chance 1.97 1.74 Edge -9.5% -5.9% Win chance 45.92% 54.08% main line 6.5
Toronto Maple Leafs @ St Louis Blues Projected goals 2.66 | 3.52	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.45 1.69 Chance 2.06 1.68 Edge -15.8% -0.7% Win chance 40.89% 59.11%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 3.54 3.97 2.15 Chance 2.78 3.81 2.20 Edge -21.4% -4.0% +2.3% Win chance 28.29% 25.20% 46.51%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.64 1.61 Chance 2.11 1.65 Edge -20.2% +2.6% Win chance 37.82% 62.18%	Total Over Under Projection 2.20 1.83 Chance 1.97 1.74 Edge -10.4% -5.1% Win chance 45.48% 54.52% main line 6.5
Utah Mammoth @ Los Angeles Kings Projected goals 3.09 | 3.18	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 1.99 2.01 Chance 1.80 1.90 Edge -9.4% -5.6% Win chance 50.31% 49.69%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 2.68 3.86 2.72 Chance 2.40 3.70 2.55 Edge -10.3% -4.2% -6.3% Win chance 37.37% 25.88% 36.75%	DNB 1 2 Projection 1.98 2.02 Chance 1.79 1.91 Edge -9.8% -5.3% Win chance 50.42% 49.58%	Total Over Under Projection 1.75 2.33 Chance 1.85 1.85 Edge +5.7% -20.7% Win chance 57.14% 42.86% main line 5.5
Vancouver Canucks @ Calgary Flames Projected goals 2.71 | 3.69	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.52 1.66 Chance 2.23 1.58 Edge -11.5% -4.7% Win chance 39.70% 60.30%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 3.66 4.03 2.09 Chance 3.00 3.91 2.05 Edge -18.1% -3.0% -1.8% Win chance 27.30% 24.80% 47.90%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.75 1.57 Chance 2.30 1.54 Edge -16.5% -1.9% Win chance 36.30% 63.70%	Total Over Under Projection 2.05 1.96 Chance 1.89 1.81 Edge -7.7% -7.4% Win chance 48.86% 51.14% main line 6.5
Washington Capitals @ Vegas Golden Knights Projected goals 2.80 | 3.24	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.17 1.85 Chance 2.21 1.59 Edge +1.7% -14.2% Win chance 46.01% 53.99%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 3.03 3.85 2.44 Chance 2.95 4.01 2.05 Edge -2.6% +4.1% -15.9% Win chance 33.03% 25.95% 41.02%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.24 1.81 Chance 2.28 1.55 Edge +1.7% -14.1% Win chance 44.61% 55.39%	Total Over Under Projection 1.88 2.14 Chance 1.72 2.00 Edge -8.3% -6.6% Win chance 53.32% 46.68% main line 5.5
Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche Projected goals 2.92 | 3.34	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.16 1.86 Chance 2.78 1.38 Edge +28.7% -25.9% Win chance 46.29% 53.71%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 2.99 3.88 2.45 Chance 3.92 4.31 1.70 Edge +31.0% +11.0% -30.6% Win chance 33.41% 25.76% 40.83%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.22 1.82 Chance 3.02 1.32 Edge +35.9% -27.4% Win chance 45.00% 55.00%	Total Over Under Projection 2.12 1.89 Chance 2.00 1.72 Edge -5.8% -9.0% Win chance 47.10% 52.90% main line 6.5

Win bets

Game	Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV
Florida Panthers @ New York Islanders	Florida Panthers		2.27	1.93	51.79%	+17.56%
Florida Panthers @ New York Islanders	Florida Panthers		2.94	2.60	38.51%	+13.21%
Florida Panthers @ New York Islanders	Florida Panthers		2.20	1.95	51.33%	+12.92%
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning	Ottawa Senators		2.39	1.76	56.76%	+35.67%
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning	Ottawa Senators		3.11	2.37	42.27%	+31.47%
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning	Ottawa Senators		2.30	1.82	55.04%	+26.59%
Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche	Winnipeg Jets		3.02	2.22	45.00%	+35.91%
Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche	Winnipeg Jets		3.92	2.99	33.41%	+30.96%
Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche	Winnipeg Jets		2.78	2.16	46.29%	+28.69%
Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche	Draw		4.31	3.88	25.76%	+11.04%

Handicap bets

Game	Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV
Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers	Chicago Blackhawks	2.0	1.40	1.26	79.24%	+10.94%
Florida Panthers @ New York Islanders	Florida Panthers	-1.0	3.54	2.94	33.99%	+20.32%
Florida Panthers @ New York Islanders	Florida Panthers	1.5	1.45	1.30	77.19%	+11.93%
Florida Panthers @ New York Islanders	Florida Panthers	2.0	1.30	1.17	85.69%	+11.40%
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning	Ottawa Senators	-1.0	3.76	2.59	38.56%	+45.00%
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning	Ottawa Senators	1.5	1.50	1.25	80.30%	+20.44%
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning	Ottawa Senators	1.0	1.60	1.36	73.64%	+17.82%
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning	Ottawa Senators	2.0	1.33	1.13	88.28%	+17.42%
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning	Ottawa Senators	-1.5	4.10	3.54	28.22%	+15.72%
Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche	Winnipeg Jets	1.5	1.68	1.37	73.22%	+23.01%
Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche	Winnipeg Jets	2.0	1.48	1.21	82.45%	+22.03%
Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche	Winnipeg Jets	1.0	1.88	1.58	63.35%	+19.10%

Goal totals

Game	Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV
Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers	Under	4.5	4.24	3.66	27.31%	+15.79%
Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers	Under	5.5	2.21	1.98	50.61%	+11.85%
Utah Mammoth @ Los Angeles Kings	Over	7.5	4.08	3.70	27.01%	+10.19%

Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers

2026-03-27 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Chicago Blackhawks: book 2.45 | fair 2.42

New York Rangers: book 1.56 | fair 1.70

Expected goals

Chicago Blackhawks: 2.50

New York Rangers: 3.31

Goalies

Chicago Blackhawks: n/a

New York Rangers: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Chicago Blackhawks: -0.80

New York Rangers: +0.58

Roster events

Chicago Blackhawks: +0.00

New York Rangers: +0.01

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Chicago Blackhawks	New York Rangers	Chicago Blackhawks note	New York Rangers note
Base shots	26.54	27.56
Base xG	2.98	3.22
Goalie layer	-0.39	+0.03	starter Soderblom (+0.12 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.39.	starter Garand (+0.65 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.03.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	-0.09	+0.07	triggered scenario b2b_AA_short_121_500_after_loss.	triggered scenario rest1_home_medium_501_1000_after_loss.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.00	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

Win bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Draw		4.16	3.90	25.63%	+6.63%	+2.10%

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Chicago Blackhawks	2.0	1.40	1.26	79.24%	+10.94%	+27.35%
Chicago Blackhawks	1.5	1.58	1.44	69.28%	+9.45%	+16.30%

Goal totals

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Under	4.5	4.24	3.66	27.31%	+15.79%	+4.87%
Under	5.5	2.21	1.98	50.61%	+11.85%	+9.79%
Under	6.5	1.80	1.65	60.47%	+8.84%	+11.05%

Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres

2026-03-27 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Detroit Red Wings: book 2.29 | fair 2.26

Buffalo Sabres: book 1.64 | fair 1.79

Expected goals

Detroit Red Wings: 2.78

Buffalo Sabres: 3.37

Goalies

Detroit Red Wings: n/a

Buffalo Sabres: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Detroit Red Wings: +0.00

Buffalo Sabres: +0.79

Roster events

Detroit Red Wings: +0.00

Buffalo Sabres: +0.00

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Detroit Red Wings	Buffalo Sabres	Detroit Red Wings note	Buffalo Sabres note
Base shots	27.85	29.16
Base xG	3.39	3.36
Goalie layer	-0.60	-0.08	starter John Gibson (+0.23 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.60.	starter Alex Lyon (+1.26 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.08.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.09	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	triggered scenario rest1_home_same_city_after_loss.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.00	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Detroit Red Wings	2.0	1.34	1.23	81.04%	+8.59%	+25.28%
Detroit Red Wings	1.5	1.51	1.40	71.54%	+8.03%	+15.75%

Anaheim Ducks @ Edmonton Oilers

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Anaheim Ducks: book 2.05 | fair 2.03

Edmonton Oilers: book 1.69 | fair 1.97

Expected goals

Anaheim Ducks: 3.43

Edmonton Oilers: 3.62

Goalies

Anaheim Ducks: n/a

Edmonton Oilers: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Anaheim Ducks: -0.75

Edmonton Oilers: +0.00

Roster events

Anaheim Ducks: -0.06

Edmonton Oilers: -0.17

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Anaheim Ducks	Edmonton Oilers	Anaheim Ducks note	Edmonton Oilers note
Base shots	28.42	29.63
Base xG	3.49	3.82
Goalie layer	+0.05	-0.18	starter Ville Husso (+0.18 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.05.	starter Connor Ingram (-0.28 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.18.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	-0.09	-0.00	triggered scenario rest1_away_short_121_500_after_win.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	-0.01	-0.02	roster-event memory moved xG -0.06 via own attack Troy Terry.	roster-event memory moved xG -0.17 via own attack Leon Draisaitl.

No 5%+ EV markets matched between the model and Chance on the current pull.

Dallas Stars @ Pittsburgh Penguins

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Dallas Stars: book 1.80 | fair 1.83

Pittsburgh Penguins: book 1.90 | fair 2.21

Expected goals

Dallas Stars: 3.44

Pittsburgh Penguins: 3.16

Goalies

Dallas Stars: n/a

Pittsburgh Penguins: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Dallas Stars: +0.00

Pittsburgh Penguins: +0.69

Roster events

Dallas Stars: -0.10

Pittsburgh Penguins: -0.12

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Dallas Stars	Pittsburgh Penguins	Dallas Stars note	Pittsburgh Penguins note
Base shots	26.22	26.79
Base xG	3.45	3.10
Goalie layer	+0.01	+0.11	starter Jake Oettinger (-0.11 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.01.	starter Stuart Skinner (+0.21 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.11.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	-0.11	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	missing core names Evgeni Malkin moved xG -0.11.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.08	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	triggered scenario rest1_home_medium_501_1000_after_win.
Roster event memory	-0.01	-0.01	roster-event memory moved xG -0.10 via own attack Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz.	roster-event memory moved xG -0.12 via own attack Evgeni Malkin.

No 5%+ EV markets matched between the model and Chance on the current pull.

Florida Panthers @ New York Islanders

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Florida Panthers: book 2.20 | fair 1.95

New York Islanders: book 1.66 | fair 2.05

Expected goals

Florida Panthers: 3.26

New York Islanders: 3.27

Goalies

Florida Panthers: n/a

New York Islanders: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Florida Panthers: +0.00

New York Islanders: +0.00

Roster events

Florida Panthers: -0.19

New York Islanders: +0.00

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Florida Panthers	New York Islanders	Florida Panthers note	New York Islanders note
Base shots	28.02	27.82
Base xG	3.60	3.16
Goalie layer	-0.31	+0.11	starter Daniil Tarasov (-0.13 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.31.	starter Ilya Sorokin (+0.19 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.11.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	-0.00	+0.00	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	-0.02	+0.00	roster-event memory moved xG -0.19 via own attack Brad Marchand, Sam Reinhart.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

Win bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Florida Panthers		2.27	1.93	51.79%	+17.56%	+13.82%
Florida Panthers		2.94	2.60	38.51%	+13.21%	+6.81%
Florida Panthers		2.20	1.95	51.33%	+12.92%	+10.77%

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Florida Panthers	-1.0	3.54	2.94	33.99%	+20.32%	+8.00%
Florida Panthers	1.5	1.45	1.30	77.19%	+11.93%	+26.50%
Florida Panthers	2.0	1.30	1.17	85.69%	+11.40%	+37.99%
Florida Panthers	1.0	1.55	1.44	69.23%	+7.31%	+13.30%

Goal totals

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Over	7.5	3.57	3.26	30.66%	+9.46%	+3.68%
Over	6.5	2.10	1.95	51.34%	+7.80%	+7.09%

Minnesota Wild @ Boston Bruins

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Minnesota Wild: book 1.89 | fair 2.02

Boston Bruins: book 1.81 | fair 1.98

Expected goals

Minnesota Wild: 3.28

Boston Bruins: 3.43

Goalies

Minnesota Wild: n/a

Boston Bruins: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Minnesota Wild: +0.00

Boston Bruins: +0.00

Roster events

Minnesota Wild: +0.00

Boston Bruins: +0.00

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Minnesota Wild	Boston Bruins	Minnesota Wild note	Boston Bruins note
Base shots	29.69	28.69
Base xG	3.72	3.37
Goalie layer	-0.44	+0.05	starter Jesper Wallstedt (-0.47 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.44.	starter Joonas Korpisalo (+0.38 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.05.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.00	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.00	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

No 5%+ EV markets matched between the model and Chance on the current pull.

Montreal Canadiens @ Nashville Predators

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Montreal Canadiens: book 1.79 | fair 2.01

Nashville Predators: book 1.92 | fair 1.99

Expected goals

Montreal Canadiens: 3.40

Nashville Predators: 3.54

Goalies

Montreal Canadiens: n/a

Nashville Predators: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Montreal Canadiens: +0.00

Nashville Predators: +0.79

Roster events

Montreal Canadiens: +0.00

Nashville Predators: -0.06

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Montreal Canadiens	Nashville Predators	Montreal Canadiens note	Nashville Predators note
Base shots	29.08	28.20
Base xG	3.73	3.64
Goalie layer	-0.33	-0.19	starter Jakub Dobes (+0.67 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.33.	starter Justus Annunen (+0.81 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.19.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.10	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	triggered scenario rest1_home_same_city_after_loss.
Roster event memory	+0.00	-0.01	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	roster-event memory moved xG -0.06 via own attack Michael Bunting.

Goal totals

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Over	7.5	2.92	2.73	36.62%	+6.93%	+3.61%

New Jersey Devils @ Carolina Hurricanes

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

New Jersey Devils: book 2.38 | fair 2.34

Carolina Hurricanes: book 1.51 | fair 1.75

Expected goals

New Jersey Devils: 2.92

Carolina Hurricanes: 3.64

Goalies

New Jersey Devils: n/a

Carolina Hurricanes: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

New Jersey Devils: +0.00

Carolina Hurricanes: +0.00

Roster events

New Jersey Devils: +0.00

Carolina Hurricanes: +0.00

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	New Jersey Devils	Carolina Hurricanes	New Jersey Devils note	Carolina Hurricanes note
Base shots	27.35	29.37
Base xG	3.23	3.50
Goalie layer	-0.31	+0.14	starter Jacob Markstrom (-0.12 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.31.	starter Frederik Andersen (+0.39 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.14.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.00	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.00	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

Win bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Draw		4.19	3.98	25.16%	+5.40%	+1.69%

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
New Jersey Devils	2.0	1.34	1.27	78.79%	+5.58%	+16.42%

Goal totals

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Over	7.5	3.51	3.22	31.05%	+8.98%	+3.58%
Over	6.5	2.08	1.94	51.64%	+7.42%	+6.87%

Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Ottawa Senators: book 2.30 | fair 1.82

Tampa Bay Lightning: book 1.60 | fair 2.22

Expected goals

Ottawa Senators: 3.36

Tampa Bay Lightning: 3.06

Goalies

Ottawa Senators: n/a

Tampa Bay Lightning: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Ottawa Senators: +0.00

Tampa Bay Lightning: +0.79

Roster events

Ottawa Senators: +0.00

Tampa Bay Lightning: +0.24

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Ottawa Senators	Tampa Bay Lightning	Ottawa Senators note	Tampa Bay Lightning note
Base shots	30.29	24.26
Base xG	3.50	2.96
Goalie layer	-0.14	-0.03	starter Linus Ullmark (+0.22 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.14.	starter Andrei Vasilevskiy (+0.54 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.03.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.10	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	triggered scenario rest1_home_same_city_after_loss.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.03	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	roster-event memory moved xG +0.24 via opp defense Jake Sanderson, Nick Jensen, Thomas Chabot.

Win bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Ottawa Senators		2.39	1.76	56.76%	+35.67%	+25.66%
Ottawa Senators		3.11	2.37	42.27%	+31.47%	+14.92%
Ottawa Senators		2.30	1.82	55.04%	+26.59%	+20.45%

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Ottawa Senators	-1.0	3.76	2.59	38.56%	+45.00%	+16.31%
Ottawa Senators	1.5	1.50	1.25	80.30%	+20.44%	+40.89%
Ottawa Senators	1.0	1.60	1.36	73.64%	+17.82%	+29.70%
Ottawa Senators	2.0	1.33	1.13	88.28%	+17.42%	+52.78%
Ottawa Senators	-1.5	4.10	3.54	28.22%	+15.72%	+5.07%

Philadelphia Flyers @ Detroit Red Wings

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Philadelphia Flyers: book 2.06 | fair 2.19

Detroit Red Wings: book 1.68 | fair 1.84

Expected goals

Philadelphia Flyers: 2.79

Detroit Red Wings: 3.25

Goalies

Philadelphia Flyers: n/a

Detroit Red Wings: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Philadelphia Flyers: +0.00

Detroit Red Wings: +0.00

Roster events

Philadelphia Flyers: +0.00

Detroit Red Wings: +0.00

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Philadelphia Flyers	Detroit Red Wings	Philadelphia Flyers note	Detroit Red Wings note
Base shots	24.37	28.18
Base xG	3.05	3.32
Goalie layer	-0.26	-0.06	starter Samuel Ersson (-0.91 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.26.	starter John Gibson (+0.23 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.06.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.00	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.00	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

No 5%+ EV markets matched between the model and Chance on the current pull.

San Jose Sharks @ Columbus Blue Jackets

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

San Jose Sharks: book 2.56 | fair 2.48

Columbus Blue Jackets: book 1.44 | fair 1.68

Expected goals

San Jose Sharks: 2.71

Columbus Blue Jackets: 3.62

Goalies

San Jose Sharks: n/a

Columbus Blue Jackets: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

San Jose Sharks: +0.00

Columbus Blue Jackets: +0.58

Roster events

San Jose Sharks: +0.05

Columbus Blue Jackets: +0.15

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	San Jose Sharks	Columbus Blue Jackets	San Jose Sharks note	Columbus Blue Jackets note
Base shots	25.23	28.68
Base xG	2.93	3.34
Goalie layer	-0.23	+0.20	starter Alex Nedeljkovic (+0.04 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.23.	starter Jet Greaves (+0.17 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.20.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	-0.00	+0.07	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	triggered scenario rest1_home_medium_501_1000_after_loss.
Roster event memory	+0.01	+0.02	roster-event memory moved xG +0.05.	roster-event memory moved xG +0.15 via opp defense John Klingberg, Timothy Liljegren.

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
San Jose Sharks	2.0	1.42	1.30	77.11%	+9.49%	+22.60%
San Jose Sharks	1.5	1.60	1.48	67.48%	+7.96%	+13.27%

Seattle Kraken @ Buffalo Sabres

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Seattle Kraken: book 2.49 | fair 2.76

Buffalo Sabres: book 1.46 | fair 1.57

Expected goals

Seattle Kraken: 2.49

Buffalo Sabres: 3.74

Goalies

Seattle Kraken: n/a

Buffalo Sabres: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Seattle Kraken: +0.00

Buffalo Sabres: +0.00

Roster events

Seattle Kraken: -0.05

Buffalo Sabres: +0.00

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Seattle Kraken	Buffalo Sabres	Seattle Kraken note	Buffalo Sabres note
Base shots	25.15	30.83
Base xG	2.99	3.55
Goalie layer	-0.49	+0.19	starter Philipp Grubauer (-0.40 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.49.	starter Alex Lyon (+1.26 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.19.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.00	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	-0.01	+0.00	roster-event memory moved xG -0.05 via own attack Jaden Schwartz, Jared McCann.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

No 5%+ EV markets matched between the model and Chance on the current pull.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ St Louis Blues

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Toronto Maple Leafs: book 2.06 | fair 2.45

St Louis Blues: book 1.68 | fair 1.69

Expected goals

Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.66

St Louis Blues: 3.52

Goalies

Toronto Maple Leafs: n/a

St Louis Blues: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Toronto Maple Leafs: +0.00

St Louis Blues: +0.00

Roster events

Toronto Maple Leafs: -0.15

St Louis Blues: -0.21

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Toronto Maple Leafs	St Louis Blues	Toronto Maple Leafs note	St Louis Blues note
Base shots	24.80	30.85
Base xG	3.05	3.43
Goalie layer	-0.37	+0.11	starter Joseph Woll (-0.23 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.37.	starter Joel Hofer (+0.78 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.11.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	-0.00	+0.00	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	-0.02	-0.02	roster-event memory moved xG -0.15 via own attack Auston Matthews.	roster-event memory moved xG -0.21 via own attack Brayden Schenn, Robert Thomas.

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
St Louis Blues	-1.0	2.49	2.29	43.72%	+8.87%	+5.95%

Utah Mammoth @ Los Angeles Kings

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Utah Mammoth: book 1.80 | fair 1.99

Los Angeles Kings: book 1.90 | fair 2.01

Expected goals

Utah Mammoth: 3.09

Los Angeles Kings: 3.18

Goalies

Utah Mammoth: n/a

Los Angeles Kings: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Utah Mammoth: +0.00

Los Angeles Kings: +0.00

Roster events

Utah Mammoth: -0.13

Los Angeles Kings: +0.05

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Utah Mammoth	Los Angeles Kings	Utah Mammoth note	Los Angeles Kings note
Base shots	25.56	28.02
Base xG	2.97	3.37
Goalie layer	+0.14	-0.19	starter Vitek Vanecek (+0.24 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.14.	starter Darcy Kuemper (-0.12 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.19.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.00	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	-0.01	+0.01	roster-event memory moved xG -0.13 via own attack Barrett Hayton.	roster-event memory moved xG +0.05.

Goal totals

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Over	7.5	4.08	3.70	27.01%	+10.19%	+3.31%
Over	6.5	2.31	2.11	47.32%	+9.31%	+7.10%
Over	5.5	1.85	1.75	57.14%	+5.71%	+6.71%

Vancouver Canucks @ Calgary Flames

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Vancouver Canucks: book 2.23 | fair 2.52

Calgary Flames: book 1.58 | fair 1.66

Expected goals

Vancouver Canucks: 2.71

Calgary Flames: 3.69

Goalies

Vancouver Canucks: n/a

Calgary Flames: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Vancouver Canucks: +0.00

Calgary Flames: +0.79

Roster events

Vancouver Canucks: -0.04

Calgary Flames: -0.09

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Vancouver Canucks	Calgary Flames	Vancouver Canucks note	Calgary Flames note
Base shots	25.03	29.89
Base xG	2.92	3.31
Goalie layer	-0.21	+0.30	starter Kevin Lankinen (-0.86 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.21.	starter Devin Cooley (+0.63 GSAx/60) moved xG +0.30.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.09	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	triggered scenario rest1_home_same_city_after_loss.
Roster event memory	-0.00	-0.01	roster-event memory moved xG -0.04 via own attack Conor Garland; opp defense Rasmus Andersson.	roster-event memory moved xG -0.09 via own attack Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri; opp defense Tyler Myers.

No 5%+ EV markets matched between the model and Chance on the current pull.

Washington Capitals @ Vegas Golden Knights

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Washington Capitals: book 2.21 | fair 2.17

Vegas Golden Knights: book 1.59 | fair 1.85

Expected goals

Washington Capitals: 2.80

Vegas Golden Knights: 3.24

Goalies

Washington Capitals: n/a

Vegas Golden Knights: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Washington Capitals: +0.00

Vegas Golden Knights: +0.79

Roster events

Washington Capitals: +0.00

Vegas Golden Knights: +0.00

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Washington Capitals	Vegas Golden Knights	Washington Capitals note	Vegas Golden Knights note
Base shots	22.66	29.17
Base xG	3.07	3.70
Goalie layer	-0.26	-0.56	starter Logan Thompson (+0.95 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.26.	starter Adin Hill (+0.16 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.56.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.10	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	triggered scenario rest1_home_same_city_after_loss.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.00	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Washington Capitals	2.0	1.28	1.21	82.72%	+5.88%	+20.99%

Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche

2026-03-28 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Winnipeg Jets: book 2.78 | fair 2.16

Colorado Avalanche: book 1.38 | fair 1.86

Expected goals

Winnipeg Jets: 2.92

Colorado Avalanche: 3.34

Goalies

Winnipeg Jets: n/a

Colorado Avalanche: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Winnipeg Jets: +0.00

Colorado Avalanche: -0.56

Roster events

Winnipeg Jets: +0.00

Colorado Avalanche: +0.00

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Winnipeg Jets	Colorado Avalanche	Winnipeg Jets note	Colorado Avalanche note
Base shots	24.22	30.57
Base xG	3.12	3.50
Goalie layer	-0.20	-0.09	starter Connor Hellebuyck (+0.14 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.20.	starter Mackenzie Blackwood (+0.26 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.09.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	-0.06	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	triggered scenario rest1_home_long_1001_1500_after_win.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.00	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

Win bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Winnipeg Jets		3.02	2.22	45.00%	+35.91%	+17.78%
Winnipeg Jets		3.92	2.99	33.41%	+30.96%	+10.60%
Winnipeg Jets		2.78	2.16	46.29%	+28.69%	+16.12%
Draw		4.31	3.88	25.76%	+11.04%	+3.34%

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Winnipeg Jets	1.5	1.68	1.37	73.22%	+23.01%	+33.84%
Winnipeg Jets	2.0	1.48	1.21	82.45%	+22.03%	+45.90%
Winnipeg Jets	1.0	1.88	1.58	63.35%	+19.10%	+21.71%
Winnipeg Jets	-1.5	5.16	4.87	20.53%	+5.95%	+1.43%