Prime ML Markets

Chance NHL markets beyond shots, sorted by start time.

6 matches priced | 73 matched market rows | bankroll guide 100,000 at Kelly × 0.25

Matchup	ML	3Way	DNB	Total
Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild Side-model expected goals 3.37 | 3.23 Totals engine goals 3.32 | 3.47 (sum 6.79)	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 1.89 2.13 Chance 1.70 2.20 Edge -9.9% +3.4% Win chance 53.00% 47.00%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 2.48 3.92 2.92 Chance 2.17 4.10 2.94 Edge -12.7% +4.6% +0.7% Win chance 40.24% 25.52% 34.24%	DNB 1 2 Projection 1.85 2.18 Chance 1.67 2.25 Edge -9.8% +3.4% Win chance 54.03% 45.97%	Total Over Under Projection 2.07 1.94 Chance 1.96 1.88 Edge -5.3% -2.9% Win chance 48.34% 51.66% main line 6.5 | totals engine 3.32 | 3.47 (sum 6.79)
Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights Side-model expected goals 3.19 | 3.31 Totals engine goals 3.14 | 3.35 (sum 6.49)	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 2.00 2.00 Chance 2.21 1.59 Edge +10.3% -20.4% Win chance 49.93% 50.07%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 2.70 3.89 2.69 Chance 2.95 3.98 2.06 Edge +9.4% +2.3% -23.3% Win chance 37.08% 25.69% 37.23%	DNB 1 2 Projection 2.00 2.00 Chance 2.27 1.56 Edge +13.3% -21.8% Win chance 49.90% 50.10%	Total Over Under Projection 2.19 1.84 Chance 1.94 1.77 Edge -11.3% -3.9% Win chance 45.73% 54.27% main line 6.5 | totals engine 3.14 | 3.35 (sum 6.49)
Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens Side-model expected goals 3.09 | 3.19 Totals engine goals 2.18 | 3.17 (sum 5.35)	Moneyline 1 2 Projection 1.99 2.01 Chance 2.12 1.64 Edge +6.5% -18.4% Win chance 50.24% 49.76%	3Way 1 X 2 Projection 2.68 3.86 2.72 Chance 2.83 3.94 2.13 Edge +5.6% +2.0% -21.6% Win chance 37.30% 25.88% 36.82%	DNB 1 2 Projection 1.99 2.01 Chance 2.17 1.61 Edge +9.2% -20.0% Win chance 50.32% 49.68%	Total Over Under Projection 2.82 1.55 Chance 1.96 1.75 Edge -30.5% +12.9% Win chance 35.48% 64.52% main line 6.5 | totals engine 2.18 | 3.17 (sum 5.35)
Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche Side-model expected goals 2.82 | 3.32	Moneyline 1 2 Projection n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a	3Way 1 X 2 Projection n/a n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a n/a	DNB 1 2 Projection n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a	Total Over Under Projection n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a main line n/a
Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres Side-model expected goals 3.12 | 3.07	Moneyline 1 2 Projection n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a	3Way 1 X 2 Projection n/a n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a n/a	DNB 1 2 Projection n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a	Total Over Under Projection n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a main line n/a
Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights Side-model expected goals 3.23 | 3.22	Moneyline 1 2 Projection n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a	3Way 1 X 2 Projection n/a n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a n/a	DNB 1 2 Projection n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a	Total Over Under Projection n/a n/a Chance n/a n/a Edge n/a n/a Win chance n/a n/a main line n/a

Win bets

Game	Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV
Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights	Anaheim Ducks		2.27	2.00	49.90%	+13.27%
Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights	Anaheim Ducks		2.21	2.00	49.93%	+10.34%

Handicap bets

Game	Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV
Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights	Anaheim Ducks	-1.0	3.52	3.10	32.22%	+13.41%

Goal totals

Game	Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV
Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens	Under	4.5	4.12	2.06	48.66%	+100.48%
Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens	Under	5.5	2.16	1.52	65.98%	+42.52%
Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens	Under	6.5	1.75	1.55	64.52%	+12.90%

Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild

2026-05-11 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Colorado Avalanche: book 1.70 | fair 1.89

Minnesota Wild: book 2.20 | fair 2.13

Side-model expected goals

Colorado Avalanche: 3.37

Minnesota Wild: 3.23

Totals engine goals

Colorado Avalanche: 3.32

Minnesota Wild: 3.47 | total 6.79

Goalies

Colorado Avalanche: n/a

Minnesota Wild: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Colorado Avalanche: +0.80

Minnesota Wild: +0.00

Roster events

Colorado Avalanche: +0.00

Minnesota Wild: -0.16

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Colorado Avalanche	Minnesota Wild	Colorado Avalanche note	Minnesota Wild note
Base shots	30.21	26.31
Base xG	3.37	3.30
Goalie layer	-0.09	-0.04	starter Mackenzie Blackwood (-0.36 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.09.	starter Wallstedt (+0.08 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.04.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.09	-0.00	triggered scenario rest1_away_same_city_after_loss.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	+0.00	-0.02	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	roster-event memory moved xG -0.16 via own attack Joel Eriksson Ek.

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Minnesota Wild	2.0	1.32	1.21	82.34%	+8.69%	+27.14%
Minnesota Wild	1.5	1.46	1.36	73.36%	+7.10%	+15.45%

Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights

2026-05-12 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Anaheim Ducks: book 2.21 | fair 2.00

Vegas Golden Knights: book 1.59 | fair 2.00

Side-model expected goals

Anaheim Ducks: 3.19

Vegas Golden Knights: 3.31

Totals engine goals

Anaheim Ducks: 3.14

Vegas Golden Knights: 3.35 | total 6.49

Goalies

Anaheim Ducks: n/a

Vegas Golden Knights: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Anaheim Ducks: -0.75

Vegas Golden Knights: +0.65

Roster events

Anaheim Ducks: -0.23

Vegas Golden Knights: -0.12

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Anaheim Ducks	Vegas Golden Knights	Anaheim Ducks note	Vegas Golden Knights note
Base shots	27.49	24.66
Base xG	3.36	3.43
Goalie layer	-0.06	-0.19	starter Ville Husso (-0.07 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.06.	starter Carter Hart (+0.07 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.19.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	-0.09	+0.09	triggered scenario rest1_away_short_121_500_after_win.	triggered scenario rest1_home_short_121_500_after_loss.
Roster event memory	-0.03	-0.02	roster-event memory moved xG -0.23 via own attack Beckett Sennecke.	roster-event memory moved xG -0.12 via own attack Mark Stone.

Win bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Anaheim Ducks		2.27	2.00	49.90%	+13.27%	+10.45%
Anaheim Ducks		2.21	2.00	49.93%	+10.34%	+8.54%
Anaheim Ducks		2.95	2.70	37.08%	+9.38%	+4.81%

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Anaheim Ducks	-1.0	3.52	3.10	32.22%	+13.41%	+5.32%
Anaheim Ducks	2.0	1.29	1.18	84.77%	+9.35%	+32.26%
Anaheim Ducks	1.5	1.43	1.31	76.07%	+8.78%	+20.42%

Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens

2026-05-12 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Buffalo Sabres: book 2.12 | fair 1.99

Montreal Canadiens: book 1.64 | fair 2.01

Side-model expected goals

Buffalo Sabres: 3.09

Montreal Canadiens: 3.19

Totals engine goals

Buffalo Sabres: 2.18

Montreal Canadiens: 3.17 | total 5.35

Goalies

Buffalo Sabres: n/a

Montreal Canadiens: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Buffalo Sabres: +0.80

Montreal Canadiens: +0.00

Roster events

Buffalo Sabres: +0.00

Montreal Canadiens: +0.00

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Buffalo Sabres	Montreal Canadiens	Buffalo Sabres note	Montreal Canadiens note
Base shots	27.69	24.34
Base xG	3.53	3.27
Goalie layer	-0.54	-0.08	starter Colten Ellis (+0.03 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.54.	starter Jakub Dobes (+1.40 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.08.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.10	+0.00	triggered scenario rest1_away_same_city_after_loss.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.00	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

Win bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Buffalo Sabres		2.17	1.99	50.32%	+9.20%	+7.86%
Buffalo Sabres		2.12	1.99	50.24%	+6.50%	+5.81%
Buffalo Sabres		2.83	2.68	37.30%	+5.56%	+3.04%

Handicap bets

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Buffalo Sabres	-1.0	3.39	3.09	32.32%	+9.56%	+4.00%
Buffalo Sabres	2.0	1.26	1.17	85.39%	+7.59%	+29.20%
Buffalo Sabres	1.5	1.39	1.30	76.64%	+6.53%	+16.74%

Goal totals

Selection	Line	Book	Fair	Win%	EV	Kelly%
Under	4.5	4.12	2.06	48.66%	+100.48%	+32.21%
Under	5.5	2.16	1.52	65.98%	+42.52%	+36.65%
Under	6.5	1.75	1.55	64.52%	+12.90%	+17.20%
Under	7.5	1.28	1.17	85.55%	+9.51%	+33.96%

Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche

2026-05-13 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Minnesota Wild: book n/a | fair n/a

Colorado Avalanche: book n/a | fair n/a

Side-model expected goals

Minnesota Wild: 2.82

Colorado Avalanche: 3.32

Totals engine goals

Minnesota Wild: n/a

Colorado Avalanche: n/a

Goalies

Minnesota Wild: n/a

Colorado Avalanche: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Minnesota Wild: +0.00

Colorado Avalanche: +0.00

Roster events

Minnesota Wild: -0.16

Colorado Avalanche: +0.00

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Minnesota Wild	Colorado Avalanche	Minnesota Wild note	Colorado Avalanche note
Base shots	26.15	30.32
Base xG	3.29	3.38
Goalie layer	-0.45	-0.06	starter Jesper Wallstedt (+0.08 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.45.	starter Scott Wedgewood (+1.20 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.06.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	-0.00	+0.00	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	-0.02	+0.00	roster-event memory moved xG -0.16 via own attack Joel Eriksson Ek.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

No 5%+ EV markets matched between the model and Chance on the current pull.

Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres

2026-05-14 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Montreal Canadiens: book n/a | fair n/a

Buffalo Sabres: book n/a | fair n/a

Side-model expected goals

Montreal Canadiens: 3.12

Buffalo Sabres: 3.07

Totals engine goals

Montreal Canadiens: n/a

Buffalo Sabres: n/a

Goalies

Montreal Canadiens: n/a

Buffalo Sabres: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Montreal Canadiens: +0.00

Buffalo Sabres: +0.00

Roster events

Montreal Canadiens: +0.00

Buffalo Sabres: +0.00

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Montreal Canadiens	Buffalo Sabres	Montreal Canadiens note	Buffalo Sabres note
Base shots	23.63	28.42
Base xG	3.22	3.58
Goalie layer	-0.09	-0.51	starter Jakub Dobes (+1.40 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.09.	starter Colten Ellis (+0.03 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.51.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	+0.00	+0.00	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	+0.00	+0.00	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.	no major long-absence or trade-memory event moved this side.

No 5%+ EV markets matched between the model and Chance on the current pull.

Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights

2026-05-16 | n/a UTC

Moneyline

Anaheim Ducks: book n/a | fair n/a

Vegas Golden Knights: book n/a | fair n/a

Side-model expected goals

Anaheim Ducks: 3.23

Vegas Golden Knights: 3.22

Totals engine goals

Anaheim Ducks: n/a

Vegas Golden Knights: n/a

Goalies

Anaheim Ducks: n/a

Vegas Golden Knights: n/a

3Way

1 n/a | X n/a | 2 n/a

Draw win% 0.0%

Schedule trigger

Anaheim Ducks: +0.00

Vegas Golden Knights: +0.00

Roster events

Anaheim Ducks: -0.23

Vegas Golden Knights: -0.12

Layer summary

Base forecast plus every live adjustment.

Layer	Anaheim Ducks	Vegas Golden Knights	Anaheim Ducks note	Vegas Golden Knights note
Base shots	27.49	24.66
Base xG	3.36	3.43
Goalie layer	-0.10	-0.19	starter Ville Husso (-0.07 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.10.	starter Carter Hart (+0.07 GSAx/60) moved xG -0.19.
Lineup / star shock	+0.00	+0.00	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.	projected lineup looks close to the usual core.
Schedule trigger	-0.00	+0.00	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.	no high-confidence schedule trigger fired.
Roster event memory	-0.03	-0.02	roster-event memory moved xG -0.23 via own attack Beckett Sennecke.	roster-event memory moved xG -0.12 via own attack Mark Stone.

No 5%+ EV markets matched between the model and Chance on the current pull.