2026-06-06. Regulation faceoff model, compared to Chance's three-way more-faceoffs market.
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
Read: Playable edge on Vegas Golden Knights if lineup centers are as expected.
Model: Carolina Hurricanes 33.5%, tie 5.0%, Vegas Golden Knights 61.5%. Estimated draw count: 58.
| Selection | Chance | Fair | Model prob | EV |
|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 2.00 | 2.98 | 33.5% | -32.9% |
| Tie | 14.00 | 20.20 | 5.0% | -30.7% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 1.77 | 1.63 | 61.5% | +8.9% |
Blend details
| Layer | A FO% | B FO% | A draw win prob | Weight |
|---|
| season | 49.8% | 51.6% | 48.2% | 35% |
| regular | 50.0% | 51.2% | 48.8% | 15% |
| playoff | 48.4% | 53.3% | 45.0% | 20% |
| recent20 | 48.2% | 53.0% | 45.3% | 20% |
| h2h | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 10% |