2026-05-08. Regulation faceoff model, compared to Chance's three-way more-faceoffs market.
Montréal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres
Read: Playable edge on Montréal Canadiens if lineup centers are as expected.
Model: Montréal Canadiens 86.5%, tie 2.7%, Buffalo Sabres 10.8%. Estimated draw count: 55.
| Selection | Chance | Fair | Model prob | EV |
|---|
| Montréal Canadiens | 1.25 | 1.16 | 86.5% | +8.1% |
| Tie | 14.00 | 37.22 | 2.7% | -62.4% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 3.77 | 9.25 | 10.8% | -59.3% |
Blend details
| Layer | A FO% | B FO% | A draw win prob | Weight |
|---|
| season | 51.5% | 45.7% | 55.7% | 35% |
| regular | 51.0% | 46.0% | 55.0% | 15% |
| playoff | 56.5% | 42.9% | 63.3% | 20% |
| recent20 | 52.9% | 46.6% | 56.2% | 20% |
| h2h | 62.5% | 37.5% | 73.6% | 10% |
Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks
Read: Playable edge on Vegas Golden Knights if lineup centers are as expected.
Model: Vegas Golden Knights 72.7%, tie 4.2%, Anaheim Ducks 23.0%. Estimated draw count: 58.
| Selection | Chance | Fair | Model prob | EV |
|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 1.52 | 1.37 | 72.7% | +10.6% |
| Tie | 14.00 | 23.70 | 4.2% | -40.9% |
| Anaheim Ducks | 2.46 | 4.34 | 23.0% | -43.3% |
Blend details
| Layer | A FO% | B FO% | A draw win prob | Weight |
|---|
| season | 51.5% | 48.0% | 53.6% | 35% |
| regular | 51.2% | 48.1% | 53.1% | 15% |
| playoff | 54.7% | 46.9% | 57.7% | 20% |
| recent20 | 52.2% | 49.3% | 52.9% | 20% |
| h2h | 56.6% | 43.4% | 63.0% | 10% |